SGM-FX insights

European Government Bond Yields   Which is the only Eurozone country that does not expect bond buyers to pay them to lend for 5 years? The answer is Italy which pays just 0.04%. Even Greece charges 0.01% to bond investors to lend them for 5 years. The European Central Bank has convinced markets that the […]

Global Shipping   The disruption caused by the pandemic and also the Suez Canal blockage 2 months ago continues with Guandong Province in China seeing a fraction of the throughput of goods that would be normal. The Yantian International Container Terminal is just one of the ports that is affected with goods queued and early signs […]

Record Books being dusted off in the UK Statisticians and practitioners of the dismal science known as economics put their slide rules aside yesterday and came up with the following from the UK record books: April saw an increase in economic output of 27.6% from April 2020; last month saw the Bank Of England raise […]

Record Books being dusted off in the UK   Statisticians and practitioners of the dismal science known as economics put their slide rules aside yesterday and came up with the following from the UK record books: April saw an increase in economic output of 27.6% from April 2020; last month saw the Bank Of England […]

US Dollar and markets   The dollar enjoyed a stronger session yesterday with world stock markets at almost record highs and volatility indices offering reassurance of a lack of volatility. GBP was under pressure as the UK government began the process of managing expectations for a delay in the lifting of LockDown. With both the […]

UK Job Market   With the fastest hiring rate for 23 years and job vacancies advertised at the highest rate for 3 years, market watchers might draw all sorts of conclusions, but before they do, they should remember where we started from at the low point of the pandemic and lock down one. It’s not […]

UK House Prices   With house prices reported as being up by an annual 10.9% and enjoying the fastest growth for 7 years with a month on month increase of 1.8% in May, what could possibly go wrong? While those in the South might be surprised that the average house price in the UK is […]

US Equity Markets   As a bellwether for investments’ savings and pensions around the world, the US equity markets are of course required watching. The Dow as at Friday night stood at 34,200, the S&P at 4,155 and Nasdaq at 13,471. There is a correlation between the absolute level of those markets and the amount […]

Australia   As we all know Australia has form with attracting foreigners in exchange for subsidised passage and a low cost of entry. In 1945 it was the so called Ten Pound Poms as British people who were given passage and the right to settle in exchange for GBP10 were known. An unforeseen consequence of […]

Japan   With the Japanese economy contracting in Q1 by an annualised 5.1%, the worry is that Japan is slipping back into recession defined as 2 straight quarters of negative growth given the lack of economic activity in Q2 on the back of the reduction in spending, slow vaccine rollout and a surprise reduction in […]

Germany September 2021 federal election   Young, moderate, photogenic and Green, Annalene Baerbock has a real shot at succeeding Angela Merkel. With support for the Greens running at an unprecedented 28%, life could well be about to change for Germany as agendas gravitate towards sustainability. It is Germany’s neighbours to the East that are watching […]

Scotland and Independence   A number of readers have asked for a precis of what Scotland leaving the UK would mean in headlines for Scotland. Taking out the rhetoric, these are the answers: Fiscal Deficit- due to peak at 25% of Scottish GDP and then reduce in the next 4 years to 9%, an immediate […]