SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

Morning Brief – A revised 2024

Morning Brief – A revised 2024

Charles Porter Thu 21 Sep 2023

A revised 2024 The Dollar opens stronger this morning following the Federal Reserve’s decision last night. The decision confirmed interest rates were to stay on hold following this meeting. As we have highlighted following previous decisions, the forward guidance offered by the Chair Jay Powell was once again underwhelming. However, the Dollar’s bid this morning […]

Morning Brief – OECD

Morning Brief – OECD

Humphrey Percy Wed 20 Sep 2023

OECD Those fun loving folk at the Organisation for Economic and Cultural Development are at it again by forecasting that the UK will in 2023 stand at the very top of the G7 for….our rate of inflation at 7.2% which is a great deal more than the promised rate by the UK Government for the […]

Morning Brief – Dot dot dot

Morning Brief – Dot dot dot

Charles Porter Tue 19 Sep 2023

Dot dot dot With the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision looming large tomorrow, there is a significant risk that the Fed will fail to communicate sufficiently. Recently Powell and his fellow US rate setters have been reluctant to commit verbally to how they see the outlook for near term interest rates. Simultaneously, they have also […]

Morning Brief – Bank of England

Morning Brief – Bank of England

Humphrey Percy Mon 18 Sep 2023

Bank of England It is the big week in UK markets not because there is much doubt in the minds of economists that rates will go up once again on Thursday, but rather more because the “clever” money is predicting that this increase will be the last. What could go wrong? Assuming rates go up […]

Morning Brief – European Central Banks

Morning Brief – European Central Banks

Humphrey Percy Fri 15 Sep 2023

European Central Banks Going in to the final few hours before the ECB announcement and press conference on interest rates, the expectation was for a rise of 25BPs to 4% which is the highest level since the inception of the EUR in 1999. The market was poised to send the EUR lower whether the decision […]

Morning Brief – Fuel for the fire

Morning Brief – Fuel for the fire

Charles Porter Thu 14 Sep 2023

Fuel for the fire An upside inflation miss in the United States has certainly not helped allay many developing nations’ concerns about a strong US Dollar. CPI inflation registered in the United States at 3.7% for the month of August. That compares with a 3.2% July figure which was clearly much closer to the Fed’s […]

Morning Brief – UK Interest Rates

Morning Brief – UK Interest Rates

Humphrey Percy Wed 13 Sep 2023

UK Interest Rates Despite soothing words from BoE Governor Bailey last week on interest rates reaching the end of the rise cycle, wage inflation of 7.8% in the 3 months to the end of July plus unemployment a tiny bit higher at 4.3% both suggest that the end may have been called too early. So […]

Morning Brief – EURUSD lifeline?

Morning Brief – EURUSD lifeline?

Charles Porter Tue 12 Sep 2023

EURUSD lifeline? Contrary to where market consensus would have read EURUSD at the start of the year, the currency pair has failed to find support as it grinds ever lower. The recent peak of 1.12 was short lived and largely macroeconomic factors have swiftly and confidently forced the Euro-Dollar currency pair to retreat. The causality […]

Morning Brief – Currencies

Morning Brief – Currencies

Humphrey Percy Mon 11 Sep 2023

Currencies With the USD enjoying its 8th straight week of gains which is its best run for 9 years, it is worth looking at the other end of the scale: the CNY or Chinese Yuan has sunk to its low of 2007 at 7.3430. Good news for the Canadian Dollar on the back of 30,000 […]

Morning Brief – German Manufacturing Sector

Morning Brief – German Manufacturing Sector

Humphrey Percy Fri 8 Sep 2023

German Manufacturing Sector Until recently the powerhouse of both Germany and Europe, the manufacturing sector has suffered a difficult year with falling orders, lower output and high prices. Now the July production figures have been released and at a worse than expected fall of 0.8% they have done nothing to cheer the sector. EUR/USD 1.0700. […]

Morning Brief – Speakers

Morning Brief – Speakers

Charles Porter Thu 7 Sep 2023

Speakers Many FX crosses observed volatility yesterday based upon the words of decision makers at scheduled speeches. Words from policy makers at the Bank of England and the European Central Bank in particular caused significant shifts in spot prices and liquidity conditions within major pairs including EURGBP, GBPUSD and EURUSD. Whilst the words offered to […]

Morning Brief – US Dollar

Morning Brief – US Dollar

Humphrey Percy Wed 6 Sep 2023

US Dollar A positive day for the USD yesterday with the greenback reaching EUR/USD 1.0735 and GBP/USD 1.2559 on global economic growth jitters. For the first time for some months the words “safe haven” were used in conjunction with the US Dollar. Sager observers have always regarded the USD as the global reserve currency par […]

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