SGM-FX insights

Germany In the past 20 years, Germany’s leaders have made two big bets: first depend on China for trade and second, depend on Russia for energy. Both look disastrous at the moment end of 2023. Although Germany is predicted to be a particularly poor performer economically in the next 12-24 months, together with its aging […]

UK GBP managed to improve yesterday in the wake of comments from the Bank of England Governor and also the Chief Economist who both gave the clear message that it was too early to talk about cuts. The reason for the faint praise for GBP from us is that once the market absorbs the implications (inflation […]

Two defining developments Both for their respective currencies but also for wider market conditions, recent developments in the UK and Chinese economies will have a significant impact. The two headlines that have recently captured traders’ attention are publications of deflation in China and a push back on declining rate expectations in the UK. Let’s unpack […]

UK Employment It may be anecdotal today, but it is maybe going to be rather more than that when we look back in a few months’ time: when one reads that top accountancy firm PWC is laying off 500 staff because fewer resignations than expected have occurred, it would appear that the time of the […]

Is that it? The defining feature of FX markets recently has been the deterioration in the US Dollar. A slight moderation in US yields has accompanied a shift lower in DXY. However, with the Dollar sell-off not maintaining an overwhelming degree of momentum, questions over the longevity of this shift in USD’s value are creeping […]

City Of London Skyline Largely preciously preserved for so many years, the City of London skyline will change radically in the next 7 years as the City Corporation has approved 11 new towers, one of which will be taller than the very tallest current tower. What this adds up to is the equivalent of 70 […]

Sea of Green As expected the Bank of England yesterday kept UK interest rates at 5.25%. The accompanying narrative was firm: rates may go up again but the inference is clear, only if it is necessary, but it is much too early to talk about cuts. The market liked this nuanced message and the equity […]

A world apart Despite the Federal Reserve’s meeting still being digested by markets this morning, the Bank of England’s own monetary policy decision is just a few hours away. Perhaps counterintuitively, the juxtaposition between central banks is likely to become more apparent as we enter the next phase of monetary policy adjustment. Most central banks […]

Eurozone With Eurozone core inflation now at 4.2 % but the economy stuttering at -0.1% growth, the forecast from a Reuters poll of economists is for a gentle increase in growth starting now: +1% in 2024 and +1.5% in 2025. Apart from that benign outlook being almost certainly wrong, it is notable for the non […]

The other side of the coin After a short-lived period of revived volatility, ranges within EURGBP are becoming muted once again. Even for a major currency pair, the lack of volatility and tight ranges within EURGBP through the summer months was disturbing. Eventually a break of this range in favour of the Euro allowed some […]

BS Management This time BS as in Balance Sheet and the case in point is the US Federal Reserve. At the beginning of 2022 the Fed’s balance sheet stood at an all time high of USD 9 Trillion. As of now it is USD 7.9 Trillion. That is because the Fed in addition to managing […]

European Interest Rates In short, unchanged after a spate of 10 straight rises. Despite calls for cuts, sensible ECB headmistress Mme Lagarde was having none of that at the scheduled press conference yesterday: too soon, she admonished and wisely counselled caution given the inflationary effect of the unfolding crisis in Israel and Gaza. Despite that, […]