SGM-FX insights

The other side of the pair USDJPY is undeniably one of the most important currency pairs in the FX market. It plays its role as a significant barometer for market sentiment globally as well as regional risk. USDJPY has the second highest traded volume on average in the market behind EURUSD. For almost a decade […]

Germany The victory for Chancellor Merz in the weekend Election was popular with the market and the EUR duly strengthened. This was more of a gut reaction than a reasoned response as while the result chimed with the EU political weather, any logical reasoning will lead to the conclusion that the formation of a working […]

Just a Tweet Away The week ahead will prove to be light on the data front. There is still the possibility of some data surprises coming from US growth and EU inflation on Thursday and Friday respectively. However, by and large the FX market will have to take its direction from elsewhere this week. Despite […]

France There are 4000 people in France with assets of more than €100 million and they account for just 0.01% of French citizens. Never mind that, the Ecologist Party supported by the Greens and the far left in the National Assembly are determined to target those ultra rich. Unlikely to be approved but eye catching, […]

Approval Ratings One month in and while unlikely to cause POTUS Trump sleepless nights, his approval ratings have shifted markedly on his handling of the US economy. Up from 43% to 53% of those polled believe he on the wrong track. Some noise about immigration and inflation but it is noteworthy that 54% of respondents […]

Inflation vs Inflation If you cast your mind back to late 2024 I’m sure your first thought will be inflation back below the Bank of England’s 2% target. Since then the Bank has still proceeded with two modest interest rate cuts. With UK headline inflation being read at 3% yesterday, is inflation rearing its ugly […]

German Election This weekend will almost certainly see a reduction in the Green Party’s share of the vote in the elections on Sunday. In 2021 the Greens captured 14.7% of the pie with ecological issues and specifically climate change and clean energy being high up the list of voter pre-occupations. Scroll forward four years and […]

Dollar Correction – Here to Stay? Yesterday marked President’s Day in the United States of America. The bank holiday and the lighter trading volumes that were observed did not lead to any significant volatility. Instead, lighter volumes allowed recent ranges in USD to solidify. Ahead of the bank holiday and into the end of last […]

Japan Up by 47% in 2024 from 2023 the number of tourists visiting Japan has rocketed due to its favourable exchange rate. It seems unlikely but now Japan is becoming concerned about the sort of over tourism that has plagued European destinations such as Venice, Paris and Amsterdam. Meanwhile Japan is enjoying the economic windfall […]

British Pound Instead of a 0.1% contraction in growth the UK economy managed a 0.1% growth in Q4 2024. And that was enough to send the British Pound sharply up yesterday. Maybe it was or maybe the credit should go to the Daily Telegraph which carried a bullish article which can be summarised as cheer […]

Monetary Policy Vs Foreign Policy Watchers of the US Dollar may be nursing a little whiplash after yesterday’s afternoon session. CPI despite not being the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation commanded significant attention. Headline inflation month on month rose 0.5% versus a forecast of 0.3%. Core CPI came in closer to forecast once the positive […]

Parallel Universe This time what seemed to be such a parallel universe was yesterday’s meeting between USA VP JD Vance and EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen following the USA sticking penal tariffs on EU aluminium and steel. UVL retaliated with “We should look with optimism at our transatlantic relations” but then remembered to say […]