SGM-FX insights

Battle of the Minutes Overnight it was the minutes from the prior Fed meeting that were scrutinised. Immediately in its shadow will be the ECB’s minutes, due to be released early this afternoon. The Fed has been highly successful this month in dragging an over-zealous bond market back onto its track. The ECB by contrast […]

British Pound There really was something for everyone in Bank of England Governor Bailey’s comments yesterday. Firstly he said that the BoE was comfortable with the market’s view of the decline in UK interest rates -meaning one presumes both on extent and timing. Then he followed it up by saying that the UK labour market […]

The commodity trade A surprise overnight cut to a key policy rate at the Bank of China could shake up incumbent trends within commodities and commodity currencies. For context, given a recent depreciation in the Chinese Renminbi, any easing of policy was expected to be minimal during the February meeting. Whilst the central bank opted […]

34 Days That is the average time it takes between putting a UK home on the market and agreeing a sale. In London it takes 40 days which is the longest in the UK while at the other end of the time scale in Scotland the average is a mere 20 days. GBP/USD 1.2600. UK Retail […]

EU Commission Instead of November’s EU growth forecast of 1.2%, the EU Commission has revised back its prediction to 0.8% for the growth in the gross domestic product of the 20 countries. The 2025 year however will see growth of 1.5%. Back to 2024, it is difficult for the EU bloc to grow much when […]

The penny drops With UK GDP growth data released at 7am today, many commentators had looked ahead to today as a day of reckoning for the UK and its economy. With Q3 2023 already having published a negative growth rate, if contraction was confirmed in the UK for Q4 in this morning’s data then it […]

Germany With the German IFO or Business Climate Index down from 90.10 a year ago to its current level of 85.20, Germany’s business leaders are more realistic about the outlook for Europe’s largest economy than their political leaders. Chancellor Scholz wisely passed the speech making duties yesterday to one of his cohorts who managed with […]

Inflation today The most watched item on today’s agenda will undoubtedly be US CPI inflation. The statistic due for release this afternoon observes consumer price inflation for the month of January. It is a critical figure for two reasons. Firstly, the Fed has pushed back against market expectations for a rate cut as soon as […]

Gong Hei Fat Choy! As we exit the Year of the Rabbit to enter the Year of the Dragon this past weekend there were no less than 9 billion journeys made within the Peoples’ Republic of China as Chinese people caught up with friends and family to celebrate the Lunar New Year after the enforced […]

USD At EUR/USD 1.0760 the USD remains firm but doubtless in Japan lights are blinking faster on the risk dashboard of the Bank of Japan as USD is close to the psychological pain level of 150.USD/JPY 149.20. US Imports In 2023 imports of goods from China into the USA fell 20% to $427 billion. That […]

When and how For some time now there has been good cause for a bullish sentiment on EURGBP. Or, for those who prefer to analyse the inverse of the pair, GBPEUR consistently clocking in at or around the 1.17s seems steep. If we take a look at the options market, we see that Sterling in […]

China: the great leap forward On reports of the Chinese government’s president Xi arranging talks with the regulators and an imminent policy adjustment to offer relief to the beleaguered Chinese equity market, Chinese equities had their best session for 14 months yesterday.USD/CNY 7.1880. Australia Meanwhile the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady-no surprise- as […]