SGM-FX insights

EU Inflation Paving the way for a 25bp rate cut tomorrow, EU inflation came in at 1.9% on the back of uncertainty, lack of consumer confidence and people sitting on their cash. So overall good on inflation but a sign of less good things in the EU. As ever, the overall inflation figure had some […]

Debt One of the highest conviction trades throughout the market is selling long dated US debt. Specifically, treasuries with a maturity date of 30+ years are almost universally advised to be avoided or actively shorted by most funds and asset managers. A persuasion against debt as an asset isn’t exactly new. But the nature of […]

EURO ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech last week at Hertie School in Berlin, setting out the ECB ambition of making the EURO a larger/ the largest global reserve currency. At 20% versus USD ‘s 57%, EUR is already the challenger, but unlike CL’s calling for the deficit to be made up simply by […]

Oil Following the US Manhattan court blocking TT or Trump Tariffs deeming them illegal, that was enough for the oil market to outweigh the OPEC+ output increases pencilled in for July, while it remained wary on potential new US sanctions on Russian oil. The result was that oil prices rose yesterday despite POTUS letting it be […]

TACO Despite the movement in MXN yesterday following a downgrade of growth forecasts from the central bank, this briefing does not concern Mexico. Nor for that matter does it concern the Taco as a food item at all. Instead, ‘TACO’ is set to join the hall of fame for Wall Street acronyms. It stands for […]

Dutch Division The 4 way Dutch coalition looks in danger of falling apart over immigration due to Gert Wilders’ party and its brinkmanship over the Netherlands adopting his 10 point hardline immigration plan. Apart from being at odds with EU policy, it is opposed by the rest of the coalition as it involves deporting criminal […]

Thank you for your attention to this matter! This was the sign off from President Trump’s latest tariff announcement published on his social media platform, Truth Social. For those that didn’t see the post, it declared 50% tariffs in retaliation to the EU’s barriers to trade and trade surplus with the USA. Prior to this […]

USD 2 Trillion Trade Deals That is the total trade deal bag that POTUS Trump is credited admittedly by himself with snagging in his whirlwind Gulf trip this week. Many are puzzled and a few have attempted to tot up the value of the Saudi, UAE and Qatari deals, but no-one has succeeded in getting […]

G7 conclusion Yesterday’s publication of UK inflation data reached markets before the European and UK open. Whilst headline CPI is arguably less important for Bank policy than other inflation-focussed statistics such as services inflation, the release still demands market attention. Yesterday’s publication showed UK inflation above forecast for April. April is always a challenging month […]

UK Borrowing Another one for the pub quiz in case it comes up: UK government borrowing stands at £2.8 trillion or £2800 billion. While you digest that number over the chicken in the basket if indeed you are already in the pub, it will have increased by the time you get to the end of this […]

Warnings Once again there are voices within the investment community warning against an overzealous rebound amongst US asset prices. The rebound in equities following the progress made in resolving liberation day tariffs has been remarkable. Many US indices have entirely recovered the losses made following April 2nd. This stands in stark contrast to other markets, […]

The Art of the Deal Today the UK Prime Minister will be announcing the fruits of his weekend labours after meeting the EU not as an accredited delegate but in a side session on the fringes of the EU Summit in Albania. What was on the table? Youth mobility, which is pol speak for 24-30 […]