SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

Morning Brief – Central Bank Consensus

Morning Brief – Central Bank Consensus

Humphrey Percy Fri 16 Dec 2022

Central Bank Consensus As expected both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank came in to join the US Federal Reserve with 50bp hikes. Not surprisingly the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is split 3 ways with outliers voting for either lower or higher rises than what was decided given the high […]

Morning Brief – Calling the bluff

Morning Brief – Calling the bluff

Charles Porter Thu 15 Dec 2022

Calling the bluff As expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in the United States yesterday evening by a further 50 basis points. As a result of this policy adjustment, immediate target policy levels now stand at 4.25-4.5%. As also expected, the Fed pushed back fairly hard on the idea that it is ready to […]

Morning Brief – Grain and Oilseed

Morning Brief – Grain and Oilseed

Humphrey Percy Wed 14 Dec 2022

Grain and Oilseed Supply pressures will keep prices high into 2023 which are also impacted by the Ukraine war, high energy costs and bad weather in Latin America and South East Asia. While the higher prices will of course encourage farmers to plant more crops, the fact is that inventories need to be replenished from […]

Morning Brief – Pencil to pen

Morning Brief – Pencil to pen

Charles Porter Tue 13 Dec 2022

Pencil to pen As with any year ahead, 2023 has been fervently speculated over by market participants. Whilst forecasts for the forthcoming year take great priority every year, 2023 has perhaps the most divergent set of forecasts between analysts and institutions on recent record. Across asset classes and between institutions the core themes expected to […]

Morning Brief – UK Credit Rating

Morning Brief – UK Credit Rating

Humphrey Percy Mon 12 Dec 2022

UK Credit Rating Fitch have affirmed the UK’s credit rating at AA- citing the quality of the macro economic policy, Sterling’s status as a reserve currency and the deep capital markets of the UK. The outlook is negative but this is timely recognition given the Central Bank meetings taking place this week and also a […]

Morning Brief – UK Market Polls

Morning Brief – UK Market Polls

Humphrey Percy Fri 9 Dec 2022

UK Market Poll The thing about market polls is that they are notoriously unreliable but having said that, it is worth noting where expectations are for the upcoming Bank of England meeting on December 15 as reported by a Reuters poll: Rates up by 50bps taking borrowing costs to 3.50%. This is versus the 11.1% […]

Morning Brief – Expensive furniture

Morning Brief – Expensive furniture

Charles Porter Thu 8 Dec 2022

Expensive Furniture At the time of writing at least, ANC leader and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has managed to hang onto power. When the President found himself at the centre of a South African political scandal, there was a lot of concern and risk surrounding the nation and its assets. International attention was cast […]

Morning Brief – Australia

Morning Brief – Australia

Humphrey Percy Wed 7 Dec 2022

Australia With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising AUD interest rates to 3.1% which is a 10 year high, it has thrown the GBP/AUD rate back into the spotlight. Trading lower at AUD1.8185, nevertheless GBP remains at its highest level since March 2022 and still represents value-the range has been pretty much 1.80-1.90 for […]

Morning Brief – False Illusions

Morning Brief – False Illusions

Charles Porter Tue 6 Dec 2022

False Illusions On Friday last week markets had got very exuberant over comments made by the Federal Reserve Chair the day prior. As a result of the interpretation of those comments, the US Dollar had dropped several cents to trade at its recent lows. There was a narrative that was being pieced together and justified […]

Morning Brief –  Great British Pound

Morning Brief – Great British Pound

Humphrey Percy Mon 5 Dec 2022

Great British Pound GBP has notched up the sharpest recovery for some years and on Friday night was trading at GBP/USD 1.2285 and GBP/EUR 1.1655. Quite a turn around. Before continuing however, it is worth reminding ourselves that in times of such volatility, it is rare for a currency to continue in a straight line […]

Morning Brief – Germany

Morning Brief – Germany

Humphrey Percy Fri 2 Dec 2022

Germany Despite the ECB (European Central Bank) releasing a more optimistic outlook for inflation this week, careful Germans unlike their more profligate Southern European neighbours are spending less as they come to terms with much higher energy bills and much more expensive food costs. The Germans are also more worried about their personal finances than […]

Morning Brief – Data incoming

Morning Brief – Data incoming

Charles Porter Thu 1 Dec 2022

Data incoming It looks like Christmas has come far too early for equities. Led by exchanges primarily in the United States, it appears Santa, in the form of Jay Powell, has been spotted heading down the chimney. It is only December 1st after all so I will stop the parallels between Santa Claus and Federal […]

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