Daily Brief – USD 2 Trillion Trade Deals

Humphrey Percy
Chairman and Founder
Fri 23 May 2025

USD 2 Trillion Trade Deals

That is the total trade deal bag that POTUS Trump is credited admittedly by himself with snagging in his whirlwind Gulf trip this week. Many are puzzled and a few have attempted to tot up the value of the Saudi, UAE and Qatari deals, but no-one has succeeded in getting the total to USD 2 Trillion. But that is not in any way to decry what is clearly welcome and well overdue to the Gulf countries, which have felt economically neglected by the USA in recent years. It is, however, the sphere of job creation which sheds light on the US Administration’s approach to numbers – and their accuracy or otherwise: Boeing is thrilled, or more likely relieved this week, to have received an order for 210 passenger jets, which will earn them USD 96 billion over 7 years. That order alone it is claimed will create 1 million new US jobs. However, that 1 million is over the 7 year life of the contract which means that the actual number of new jobs is 154,000. Obviously not to be sniffed at, but equally not 1 million as it’s 154,000 per year or 1M over 7 years.

EUR/USD 1.1295.

E Gate Euphoria

PM Starmer’s transformational deal with the EU has been touted as one that will cast off the current shackles and discrimination, that sees queues of Brits waiting in line, while a bored and indifferent immigration official from one of the EU countries slowly turns each and every page of each UK passport. Except Cabinet Office Minister Pat McFadden puts it rather differently:… ”it’s up to the member states. But this gives us the possibility, I’d say the probability, that people will be able to use the e-gates in future, which is not a possibility at the moment,” The earliest that British travellers will be able to glide through the EU E gates is the autumn of this year and even that is open to question due to the necessary I.T. systems enhancements for the introduction of the EES or the European Entry Scheme still a glint in a developer’s eye.

GBP/USD 1.3402.

UK Situations Vacant

With the news yesterday that there are currently 1.47 million jobs available, the UK Government was quick to claim that the number of jobs available, not declining between March and April, was proof that the increase in Employers’ National Insurance was not having the negative effect its detractors claimed. It would in short be extraordinary, if it had impacted jobs in such a short time given the lead lag normal in the employment market. The fact remains that small businesses are facing a jump in costs plus there is more than anecdotal evidence that hiring is slowing. There are still 1.6 million people seeking jobs out of the huge 9.3 million of economically inactive people in the UK. And that is the target that the UK Government should be tackling.

EUR/GBP 0.8429.

Japan Government Bonds

JGBs and in particular the 30 year part of the yield curve have reached a new high at 3.14% and are a lesson for all G7 Finance Ministers as they congratulate themselves on a successful amaretti in Banff, Canada and make their ways home. In Japan Mrs Watanabe, who traditionally runs the family finances, is full up with bonds; the Bank of Japan is full up with bonds; lastly, international investors are demanding more to secure their ongoing buying. And that is why the yield on long term JGBs has risen 40 basis points in the past month. Worth watching.

EUR/JPY 162.02.

We are Family

A monster hit for Sister Sledge in 1979 when it went Platinum and was adopted as the rallying anthem for the baseball team the Pittsburgh Pirates who buoyed up by it went on to win the World Series that year.

We are family

I got all my sisters with me
We are family
Get up, everybody, and sing
We are family
I got all my sisters with me
We are family
Get up, everybody, and sing

Everyone can see we’re together
As we walk on by
(And) and we flock just like birds of a feather
I won’t tell no lie
(All) all of the people around us, they say
“Can they be that close?”
Just let me state for the record
We’re giving love in a family dose

We are family (hey, hey, hey, hey, yeah)
I got all my sisters with me (oh-huh, oh-huh)
We are family
Get up, everybody, and sing (sing it to me)
We are family
I got all my sisters with me
We are family
Get up, everybody, and sing

Have a Great Weekend! 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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