SGM-FX insights

German investor sentiment   The ZEW economic research institute reported that June investor economic sentiment fell from 79.8 to 63.3 despite Reuters having forecast it to only drop to 75.2. If this sounds to be an imprecise science, it is. Germans, it appears, at least according to these polls have quite sharp mood swings. Never […]

US Employment   With 9 million jobs remaining unfilled and less than 10% of unemployed actually looking for work, the USA is only too aware of why Covid plus the various Covid support schemes are not successful in getting Americans back to work. Despite nearly 60% of the adult working population and 46% of the […]

Oil   With WTI oil up almost USD1 and now at USD 74.98 prices are likely to firm more in the second half of 2021 as demand increases with economies returning to pre-pandemic conditions and travel restarting. The other determinant is the OPEC Meeting yesterday which having deliberated on the supply volumes for H2, decided […]

Eco Warriors   Those motorists who buy electric cars based on burnishing their green credentials might be interested to learn that the Chicago based Argonne National Laboratory has completed a study on how far one has to drive before the benefits of an electric car outweigh the harm done to the environment of a conventional petrol […]

Australia   A country that has a small population for its size-26 million at present-Australia has just pared back its forecasts for both economic and population growth. By 2061, so in 40 years time, the population is forecast to grow to 38 million. The economy had been slated to grow by 3% a year, but […]

Germany   Was it the fact that the national team clawed back to draw with Hungary on Wednesday night that cheered them up? No matter, German business morale rose more than expected in June as companies’ assessment of conditions improved and optimism was up according to the Ifo Institute. The Bundesbank is forecasting German growth […]

VW   Despite the global chip shortage affecting not just VW but all car manufacturers, VW is sticking to its 2021 profit forecast. Despite lower production, VW will be able to make up the deficit by selling off inventory and still produce 800,000 vehicles which will deliver an operating profit margin of between 5.5% and […]

Dubai Airport   For 2021 Dubai Airport is targeting 28 million passengers. Capacity is 100 million and normally services flights to 260 destinations worldwide. 18 months ago pre Pandemic the discussion was about the damage to the environment of so many passengers flying. Now economic reality is regaining some attention as the jobs, revenues and […]

Fed-up?   It appears the Fed may indeed have decided that enough is enough with respect to the constant questioning and criticism it has received about falling behind the market. After the CPI inflation measure was observed at 5% and the Fed’s preferred PCE measure came in close behind it, yesterday’s decision was always going […]

European Government Bond Yields   Which is the only Eurozone country that does not expect bond buyers to pay them to lend for 5 years? The answer is Italy which pays just 0.04%. Even Greece charges 0.01% to bond investors to lend them for 5 years. The European Central Bank has convinced markets that the […]

Global Shipping   The disruption caused by the pandemic and also the Suez Canal blockage 2 months ago continues with Guandong Province in China seeing a fraction of the throughput of goods that would be normal. The Yantian International Container Terminal is just one of the ports that is affected with goods queued and early signs […]

Record Books being dusted off in the UK Statisticians and practitioners of the dismal science known as economics put their slide rules aside yesterday and came up with the following from the UK record books: April saw an increase in economic output of 27.6% from April 2020; last month saw the Bank Of England raise […]