Morning Brief – US Inflation

US Inflation

So what? you might justifiably wonder at February US Inflation coming in at 3.2% versus the expected 3.1%. However such is the febrile state of the market psychology at present where every pundit and his/her dog are sifting through the auspices to work out when the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates, that any single release that appears to conflict with the cosy downward path of US interest rates is pounced on. Such was the case yesterday and markets duly groaned and concluded that those US interest rates will not be cut as soon as expected given the Fed’s adherence to Personal Consumption as an indicator; instead it appears to be a reversion to a case of higher for longer.

EUR/USD 1.0908

UK Employment

In the same way that a seemingly minuscule difference in actuality versus expectation can have a disproportionate effect on markets as described above to do with the USA, the surprise 0.1% uptick in UK unemployment to 3.9% and a lower by 0.1% increase in wages to 5.6%, set commentators on the UK market on the edges of their seats metaphorically. The conclusion was that instead of 2 interest rate cuts in the UK this year, we should rather expect 3 interest rate cuts. Well it’s the way that you tell ‘em, but it seems to us that to extrapolate that from those tiny variations without corroborative evidence is heroic.

GBP/USD 1.2760

Unhappy as a Clam

Unlucky for him and unhappily for his clientele when 2 Michelin starred Marco Sacco served clams to wedding guests at his Piccolo Lago Restaurant on Lake Mergozzo in Northern Italy in 2021. Despite him claiming that he followed rigorous Health and Safety procedures, 53 of those guests succumbed to novovirus poisoning. 3 years later Chef Sacco has been sentenced to 2 years and 20 days in prison with the consolation that the sentence has been conditionally suspended. Piccolo Lago seems to be doing well, having retained its two stars, but it is unclear whether clams are on the menu.

EUR/JPY 161.20

New Zealand

When it comes to female Board leadership representation, NZ leads the way with 40% of companies being led by female CEO’s. Average annual compensation for those female CEOs is NZ$ 5.6 million  which is twice that of their male counterparts who could only average NZ$ 2.6 million. No dubious double entendres about female CEOs being on top when it comes to down under please.

GBP/NZD 2.08

December 1963 (Oh What a Night)

This day in 1976 the Four Seasons notched up their fifth and final Number One US hit with this gem. 

Oh, what a night
Late December back in sixty three
What a very special time for me
As I remember, what a night

Oh, what a night, you know I didn’t even know her name
But I was never gonna be the same
What a lady, what a night

Oh, I, I got a funny feelin’ when she walked in the room
And my, as I recall it ended much too soon

Oh what a night, hypnotizin’ mesmerizing me
She was ev’rything I dreamed she’d be
Sweet surrender, what a night

I felt a rush like a rollin’ ball of thunder
Spinnin’ my head around and takin’ my body under

Oh, what a night

Oh, I, I got a funny feelin’ when she walked in the room
And my, as I recall it ended much too soon

Oh, what a night
Why’d it take so long to see the light?
Seemed so wrong, but now it seems so right
What a lady, what a night

Oh I felt a rush like a rollin’ ball of thunder
Spinnin’ my head around and takin’ my body under
Oh what a night

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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