Morning Brief – UK Economy

Humphrey Percy
Chairman and Founder
Fri 1 Mar 2024

UK Economy

Green shoots or maybe early indications that the UK economy may be showing some signs of life in Q1 2024: according to the Bank of England home finance approvals have risen from 51,500 in December to 55,200 in January. Also cash strapped brits have put GBP1.9 billion more on credit card and finance credit than they repaid in January. While not wishing to pour cold water on this slightly rosy picture, the housing stats simply reflect that December is traditionally a dead month when it comes to home sales, the rise in credit sounds more like borrowers rolling over debt in January which again is traditionally a time when people are broke after Christmas.
EUR/USD 1.0803.

Gold and Oil

Citigroup economists have released a report positing that Gold could go to $3000 and Oil to $100 in 2025. The reason behind the Gold argument is the ongoing Central Bank buying argument that we wrote about recently plus a scenario where there is a deep recession or prolonged stagflation. That last bit would seem to contradict the likelihood of Oil going to $100, but the argument for Oil to rise by 25%+ is that disruption to supply increases. So far the supply disruption has been confined to increased freight costs and longer shipping times. So not entirely convinced by these arguments.
Gold USD 2029.


If art is your thing and you have always hankered after a Monet and you have GBP7 million to splash, get along to Sotheby’s auction rooms on March 6 in London and arm yourself with a paddle. If you miss out on Monet’s masterpiece Arbes Au Bord de L’Eau, then hang about for a Picasso or a Bacon which are also going under the hammer that day.
GBP/EUR 1.1680.

The 1% Clube

To aspire to join the 1% richest of any country, one has of course to have substantial wealth, but upon examination the amount of wealth required if that sort of thing is important to you, varies widely. For example to join the 1% Club in the UK one would need USD 2.8 million of net assets whereas in Switzerland it is USD 6.6 million or pretty much the same in the USA USD 5.8 million. Before considering Monaco you will need to be far more than comfortably wealthy as to mingle with the 1% Club there , you will need USD 12.8 million of net assets.
GBP/USD 1.2665.

I’ve Been Loving You Too Long

This little known song by Elton John from his very first album is little known for a very good reason: it bombed upon its release on this day in 1968, and as a result Phillips Records made a commercial but somewhat short sighted decision to drop Elton John from their roster of artistes. While understandable given the lack of sales, that decision ensured that the record industry never stopped reminding executives at Phillips Records of what might have been. Oh well.
I didn’t mean to hurt you
You know, it’s just my way
Those things that I said yesterday
Were things I shouldn’t say

Although you’re blue
Just one thing I want you to do
Just forget all those things
That I said about you

‘Cause I’ve been loving you baby
Loving you baby for a long time
And if you go away
I just won’t know what to do

Yes, I’ve been loving you baby
Loving you baby for a long time
And you know in your heart
That I’ll always worship you

I couldn’t bear to see you go
Oh, no, no, no, no

So don’t you feel sad
It’s not the thing to do
Because I worry
If I know you’re feeling blue

Please, put your tears away
So nobody can see
‘Cause the last thing I want
Is for you to cry over me…

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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