Morning Brief – Scotland and Independence

Scotland and Independence

A number of readers have asked for a precis of what Scotland leaving the UK would mean in headlines for Scotland. Taking out the rhetoric, these are the answers:

Fiscal Deficit- due to peak at 25% of Scottish GDP and then reduce in the next 4 years to 9%, an immediate cut of GBP15 billion in spending would have to be met with both spending cuts and tax rises for Scotland.

Jobs-approximately 500,000 Scottish jobs are supported by the rest of the UK.

Currency-Scotland would remain a GBP country with UK monetary policy.

Borders-If Scotland qualified for EU membership, it would not be permitted to have open borders with both the UK and the EU. 60% of Scotland’s exports go to the rest of the UK which means a cost to Scotland of more than twice that of Scotland leaving the UK.

Germany’s 30 Year EUR 6 billion Green Bond

A couple of noteworthy points about this green issuance which attracted bids of EUR 39 billion: yielding 0.391% which is 2bps below its conventional twin, any liquidity concerns are nixed by allowing investors to switch between the two issues, this bond issue is a sign of investor priorities and what they are prepared to pay for those priorities. There will be a 10 year Green Bond in September and with existing 5 and 10 year Green Bonds, it is clear that Germany is constructing a Green Bond Yield Curve.

Romania

Those fun loving Romanians have come up with a great wheeze: offering visitors a Covid jab and a free visit to a torture exhibition when they visit 14th Century Bran Castle known all over the world as Dracula’s Castle. In May, on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays medical workers with bloody fang stickers on their overalls will offer free shots of the Pfizer vaccine. Statistics reveal that Romanians have the highest rate of vaccine hesitancy in Eastern Europe. No doubt this will help them overcome any fears they still have…!

At 4.05 versus USD, Romanian Leu is exactly where it was 5 years ago.

Brit Awards

Last night marked the keenly awaited Brit Awards event which saw Tony Blair named as the architect of Cool Britannia almost 25 years ago. SGM-FX’s Edwin Holland was rather hoping for a rerun of Spice Girl Gerri Halliwell’s 1997 tea towel Union Jack dress-not that he remembers it that well of course, having viewed it as a very young fan. GBP frothy on the eve of the Brits having flirted with USD 1.4150 earlier yesterday.

(I can’t get no) Satisfaction

It was this day in 1965 that the Rolling Stones recorded this epic number at RCA Studios. The song is ranked second on the list of the 500 Greatest Rolling Stones songs and the sales in excess of 2 million and counting no doubt went a long way to assuage the Rolling Stones’ financial satisfaction.

I can’t get no satisfaction

I can’t get no satisfaction

‘Cause I try, and I try, and I try, and I try

I can’t get no, I can’t get no

When I’m driving in my car

When a man come on the radio

He’s telling me more and more

About some useless information

Supposed to fire my imagination

I can’t get no, oh, no, no, no, hey, hey, hey

That’s what I say

I can’t get no satisfaction

I can’t get no satisfaction

‘Cause I try, and I try, and I try, and I try

I can’t get no, I can’t get no

When I’m watchin’ my TV

And a man comes on and tells me

How white my shirts can be

But, he can’t be a man ’cause he doesn’t smoke

The same cigarettes as me

I can’t get no, oh, no, no, no, hey, hey, hey

That’s what I say

I can’t get no satisfaction

I can’t get no girl reaction

‘Cause I try, and I try, and I try, and I try

I can’t get no, I can’t get no

When I’m ridin’ ’round the world

And I’m doin’ this and I’m signin’ that

And I’m tryin’ to make some girl, who tells me

Baby, better come back maybe next week

Can’t you see I’m on a losing streak?

I can’t get no, oh, no, no, no, hey, hey, hey

That’s what I say

I can’t get no, I can’t get no

I can’t get no satisfaction, no satisfaction

No satisfaction, no satisfaction

I can’t get no

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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