SGM-FX insights

Eureka…   An overnight move in the US Dollar of one cent shows the market was caught at least partially off-guard by the Federal Reserve last night. Despite USD buying in the week approaching last night’s Fed decision, the market still had room to build long-USD positions as demonstrated by the latest CFTC data. The […]

Markets   A stronger USD across the board and EUR/USD 1.1290 as the market awaits the Federal Reserve meeting later today. 10 Year US Treasury Bond yielding 1.75% and 10 Year German Bunds at -0.9%. WTI oil at $83.52. GBP/USD at 1.3494.   Oil and Gas Strike   While its northern neighbour Angola is an […]

Silvio Berlusconi   In case you missed it, the bad boy of Italian politics has decided not to run for the post of President of Italy; whether it is due to his age(85) and the toll that his new(est) wife(32) is taking on him, or simply that he has concluded that he does not need […]

UK: Mind the Gap   This refers to the gap between UK productivity and G7 productivity where the UK languishes at 13% below that of the average of the G7. While an improvement from the previous 16% deficit, the fact remains that the UK has an ongoing productivity problem. A study by the London school […]

Eurozone Household Energy Bills   Soaring European gas price rises are being passed on to consumers by the utility companies faced with the alternative of going bust. Examples of monthly rates trebling are rife for example in Cologne, Germany. The average annual Eurozone domestic energy bill for 2020 was EUR 1,200 but that is forecast […]

Odd one out?   At a time when the rest of the global economy is looking to reduce record monetary stimulus, there is one key economic power that stands at odds: China. Yesterday, amidst a much-awaited economic data release, the People’s Bank of China chose to cut interest rates by 10 basis points. In the […]

Ukraine   One of our readers has written asking what the effect on the markets would be if those 100,000 Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border were to be ordered across it. As of now, markets are surprisingly sanguine about Russia invading Ukraine and are treating it more akin to a border dispute than […]

France   News of the relaxation of travel restrictions for UK travellers to France set pulses and share prices racing in the travel sector at lunchtime yesterday. Inghams and Crystal both reported sharp increases in web traffic enquiry and bookings on their sites reflecting British skiers rushing to secure their places for le great downhill […]

Derek Tullett RIP   One of the architects of the modern money and FX markets both in London and worldwide, Derek Tullett founder of Tullett and Tokyo passed away on Sunday at the age of 87. A hugely capable broker who was renowned for his machine gun spoken delivery of forward Cable pricing at the […]

Warning or Inevitability?   Yesterday almost every financial news channel out there was covering the Nasdaq Composite stock index. They were sharing headlines that versus its all-time high reached in November, the index had fallen 10%. 10%, but more commonly 20 and 25% after that, are seen as significant retracements in markets that could signal […]

US Markets   While the US unemployment rate falling from 4.3% to 3.9% was a boost, the new jobs figure released on Friday of 199,000 was much less than the 450,000 forecast. Record numbers are quitting their jobs in the USA in a wave dubbed “The Great Resignation” choosing quality of life and WFH. Let’s […]

US Federal Reserve   So it looks now as if the Fed will raise US rates in March-the market has ascribed a 70% probability to them doing that. That sent the 10 Year US Treasury Bond yield to 1.76%-the highest for 2 years. Tight labour markets despite there being 3 million fewer jobs than at […]