SGM-FX insights

UAE   Hopefully a positive sign with Sheikh Tahnoon Al Nahyan, brother of the de facto ruler of the UAE visiting this week Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Iran Supreme Security Council to discuss improved bilateral relations. This follows exploratory talks in 2019 which did not progress, so hopefully this week’s meetings augur well for […]

Currency Markets   Most talk is about the Omicron Covid variant and its potential effect on the global economy and the Yen seen as a safe haven (despite Japan’s warning China to back off Taiwan yesterday reflecting still more tension in the region) trading at a 7 week high around 112.55 versus USD. ZAR suffering […]

Twenty Years of Strength   When the Euro came into physical existence in 2002, one Euro would have bought you a little under 1.5 Francs. That was already ten cents less than what a Euro-in-principle would have purchased you in 1999 when the Euro was conceived electronically but still limited to financial markets and select […]

Oil   In January which, in case we need reminding is just over a month away, OPEC+ is scheduled to release an extra 400,000 barrels of oil each day to contain what was, until last week looking like a rising oil price. OPEC+ are meeting this week to decide whether that plan should remain intact […]

No Brain-ard?   Having previously looked shoo-in to spend another term as chair of the Federal Reserve, the bookies had been losing faith in Jay Powell and his ability to achieve re-nomination from President Biden. The President who is responsible for appointing the head of the monetary authority faced a challenging decision. Either continue with […]

Markets   With global equity markets having had a bad day on Friday with losses across the board, as well as oil having dropped $10 and now trading at $68 on NYMEX, the question is does it stop there? Conventional wisdom is that due to last Friday being a day off if not an official […]

EU and the European Central Bank   With the ECB uncertain about the economic picture in the disparate area that is the EU, it is not surprising that they are treading a fine line between keeping their options open to act on inflation by tapering bond purchases and raising rates and convincing the market that […]

Over 50 million Barrels   High energy prices have an aggressive and pervasive threat to economies globally. In Europe, markets, economies and consumers have been particularly aware and sensitive to gas prices. Recent developments surrounding Germany and Nord Stream 2 have only served to develop tight energy commodity prices further. Rising commodity prices are a […]

Where does it stop?   When EURUSD was standing stronger around 1.15, we published in our daily bulletin that the currency pair likely had further to fall based upon our technical studies and sentiment in the market. That expectation has been fulfilled throughout November with only one of the subsequent trading sessions following that break […]

Mary Poppins (1964) and Inflation   Some readers have been asking for an example of the real cost of inflation given that so many appear to have either forgotten or perhaps never studied its pernicious effects. Screened in the UK on BBC on Saturday evening, the 1964 version of Mary Poppins grossed USD 103 million […]

US Economy   Finely balanced is probably the best way to describe how the Federal Reserve views the US economy given that for the past 20 months policy has been directed towards restoring full employment. At one extreme there is a view that there are between 4 and 6 million fewer jobs than prior to […]

One statistic, three currencies   On Tuesday we spoke about consumer price inflation and just how significant the fallout of variations in this statistic can be within the FX market. With particular reference to a 50% above-target reading in the US that had ramifications in the order of hundreds of billions of Dollars in the […]