SGM-FX insights

Thanks, but no thanks!   Moving into last night’s Federal Reserve decision, markets were expecting to see rates unchanged but were closely looking at where the board thought interest rates would be in the year(s) to come. Market expectations had rather neatly convened around 2 whole rate hikes in 2022 with similar expectations for 2023. […]

US Inflation   At 6.8% in the year to November, US inflation is as high as it has ever been for almost 40 years. That should be enough of a warning for the Bank of England as those with longer memories will know that what happens in the USA subsequently reaches the UK. Positively that roll […]

UK   With all eyes on Covid stats, the worst ever outbreak of avian flu in the UK has gone largely unreported. Thousands of farming birds have been culled across the country and an Avian Influenza Prevention Zone was declared on November 3 thereby stretching supplies of turkeys and other Christmas poultry still further. 40 […]

Ariel   Or the Atmospheric Remote-Sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey to give it its full name is a truly space age project led scientifically by the UK working with the European Space Agency and built by Airbus which involves launching a telescope in 2029 which will take up position 1.5 million kms from Earth and will […]

UAE   Hopefully a positive sign with Sheikh Tahnoon Al Nahyan, brother of the de facto ruler of the UAE visiting this week Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Iran Supreme Security Council to discuss improved bilateral relations. This follows exploratory talks in 2019 which did not progress, so hopefully this week’s meetings augur well for […]

Currency Markets   Most talk is about the Omicron Covid variant and its potential effect on the global economy and the Yen seen as a safe haven (despite Japan’s warning China to back off Taiwan yesterday reflecting still more tension in the region) trading at a 7 week high around 112.55 versus USD. ZAR suffering […]

Twenty Years of Strength   When the Euro came into physical existence in 2002, one Euro would have bought you a little under 1.5 Francs. That was already ten cents less than what a Euro-in-principle would have purchased you in 1999 when the Euro was conceived electronically but still limited to financial markets and select […]

Oil   In January which, in case we need reminding is just over a month away, OPEC+ is scheduled to release an extra 400,000 barrels of oil each day to contain what was, until last week looking like a rising oil price. OPEC+ are meeting this week to decide whether that plan should remain intact […]

No Brain-ard?   Having previously looked shoo-in to spend another term as chair of the Federal Reserve, the bookies had been losing faith in Jay Powell and his ability to achieve re-nomination from President Biden. The President who is responsible for appointing the head of the monetary authority faced a challenging decision. Either continue with […]

Markets   With global equity markets having had a bad day on Friday with losses across the board, as well as oil having dropped $10 and now trading at $68 on NYMEX, the question is does it stop there? Conventional wisdom is that due to last Friday being a day off if not an official […]

EU and the European Central Bank   With the ECB uncertain about the economic picture in the disparate area that is the EU, it is not surprising that they are treading a fine line between keeping their options open to act on inflation by tapering bond purchases and raising rates and convincing the market that […]

Over 50 million Barrels   High energy prices have an aggressive and pervasive threat to economies globally. In Europe, markets, economies and consumers have been particularly aware and sensitive to gas prices. Recent developments surrounding Germany and Nord Stream 2 have only served to develop tight energy commodity prices further. Rising commodity prices are a […]