Daily Brief – US Election

Humphrey Percy
Chairman and Founder
Mon 8 Jul 2024

US Election

Bearing in mind that the CNN poll was taken on July 2 well after the disastrous debate between Trump and Biden but it put Trump ahead at 49% versus Biden at 43%, the subsequent ABC interview with pre-advised questions for President Biden will have done little or more likely will have compounded the view that the Democrats would be best served with a different candidate. Despite the seemingly unlikely choice given the rock bottom approval ratings of VP Kamala Harris if she were to be selected as that candidate, she does have the following advantages over most but not all others: she is a woman, she is of African American and Asian ethnicity and last but most importantly, Kamala Harris has name recognition as the serving VP. Right now in the event that Biden steps back, Kamala Harris is the most likely Democrat replacement. Tellingly a poll also taken on July 2 put Trump also ahead of Harris at 47% to 45%.

EUR/USD 1.0830.

UK outlook through the bottom of a glass half full

Following last week’s stunning UK election result the following outcomes are all possible and we have to hope likely: confidence from both domestic and international investors bringing investment that has been placed on hold; an increase in personal consumer expenditure which will drive improvements in the economy; planning reforms that will clarify and streamline the current maze of regulation without destroying England’s green and pleasant land; sufficient confidence for the government to put in place measures that will bear fruit in the life of both this government and the next; not choking off the benefits of these measures by imposing stifling tax increases. 

GBP/USD 1.2808

Moulin Rouge

As we wrote just 3 short months ago when Marine Le Pen’s RN party was just a faint possibility to make any impact on the French electorate, the emblematic symbol of Paris night life Le Moulin Rouge was diminished by the loss of its sails which for a windmill is kind of fundamental. As part of the pre Olympic preparations Paris has funded the nightclub and yesterday in a ceremony complete with high kicking can can dancers the restored Moulin Rouge was unveiled. 

EUR/JPY 172.01

Three Cities

These days foreign visitors to Andalucia in southern Spain would be best advised to fly to Malaga and then take the train to Seville, Cordoba and Granada each of which will take no more than 2 hours and removes the need to find parking as well as being better for the planet and being more relaxing than driving. While July and August will likely be too hot for all but the hardiest of travellers, a cooling end to the trip could be planned on the mostly overlooked high quality seaside city of Malaga.

GBP/EUR 1.1815

Puppy Love

52 years ago today Donny Osmond and his brothers of Mormon boy band The Osmonds with brilliant white teeth prominently displayed took this 1959 Paul Anka song to Number One in the UK-the first of three for the band. Worth mentioning the teeth because such teeth were not available in 1972 in the UK.

And they called it puppy love
Oh, I guess they’ll never know
How a young heart how it really feels
And why I love her so

And they called it puppy love
Just because we’re, we’re seventeen
Tell them all it’s
Please tell them it isn’t fair
To take away my only dream

I cry each night
My tears for you
My tears are all in vain
I hope and I’ll pray
That maybe someday
You’ll be back (you’ll be back) in my arms (in my arms)
Once again (you’ll be back in my arms once again)

Someone help me, help me
Help me, please
Is the answer up above?
How can I
Oh, how can I ever tell them?
This is not a puppy love

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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