Morning Brief – Ukraine

Ukraine

One of our readers has written asking what the effect on the markets would be if those 100,000 Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border were to be ordered across it. As of now, markets are surprisingly sanguine about Russia invading Ukraine and are treating it more akin to a border dispute than a full scale invasion. As ever, it is far from certain how markets would move across the board and that will very much depend on the scale and length of time of Russia entering Ukraine, but the following market moves are most likely to occur: US Treasury Bond yields will fall as investors switch into safe havens which would also include the Swiss Franc(CHF) and, oil prices (WTI at $83.62 over the weekend) would rise further. The outlook is less positive for EUR since the market is already spooked by Europe’s reliance on Russian natural gas and a disruption to gas supplies during the coldest part of the year would have a marked negative effect on all European markets.

EUR/USD 1.1407

Blue Monday

Readers in the Northern Hemisphere may want to look away now to avoid reading this particular item: today January 17 is Blue Monday which a scientific formula based on a number of variables has established is typically the 3rd Monday in January for those in the Northern Hemisphere and is the single most depressing day of the year. Before you over think this, try looking forward to June 21 which is the Happiest Day of the year and, if you are a GBP holder requiring USD, remember that GBP is currently enjoying its best performance since October 31 when it last stood at USD 1.37.

SpaceX

Those wannabee rocket men and women among our readers may be interested to know that if they want to launch their very own satellite into space they can book a slot in Elon Musk’s rocket “rideshare program”. The next launch with availability is in May this year. On spacex.com all that is necessary is to enter the weight of the satellite, and bingo, a price is quoted immediately: 30KG or the weight of a heavy suitcase, costs $1million while the maximum of 830KG or approximately the weight of a Fiat 500 costs $4.15 million. Bargain.

Boxing Match on this day in 1994 in Chicago.

Somewhat improbably, but there again it was for charity, Donny Osmond of The Osmonds stepped into the ring to fight Danny Bonaduce of The Partridge Family. This (vain) attempt to revive their respective flagging pop careers ended in a split decision with Bonaduce subsequently being declared the victor. On the grounds of fairness therefore, here is one of Donny Osmond’s greatest commercial successes, Go Away Little Girl released in 1971 when it went to Number 1 and equally improbably in hindsight given the quality of the lyrics, it stayed there for 3 weeks:

Go away little girl
Go away little girl
I’m not supposed to be alone with you

I know that your lips are sweet,
But our lips must never meet.
I’m dating somebody else
I must be true

Oh, go away little girl
(Go away little girl)
Go away little girl
(Go away little girl)
It’s hurting me more each minute that we delay

When you’re near me like this
You’re much too hard to resist
So, go away little girl,
Before I beg you to stay.

Go away little girl
(Go away little girl)
Oh, go away little girl
(It hurts me more, the more that we delay)

When you’re near me like this
You’re much too hard to resist
So, go away little girl
Let’s call it a day little girl
Please, go away little girl,
Before I beg you to stay.

Go away little girl
(Go away)
Go away little girl
(Go away)
Please, go away little girl
(Go away)
Go away little girl
(Go away)

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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