Morning Brief – US Federal Reserve

Morning Brief – US Federal Reserve

Fri 7 Jan 2022

US Federal Reserve


So it looks now as if the Fed will raise US rates in March-the market has ascribed a 70% probability to them doing that. That sent the 10 Year US Treasury Bond yield to 1.76%-the highest for 2 years. Tight labour markets despite there being 3 million fewer jobs than at end 2019 and inflation at twice the target rate of 2%. So this all adds up to the Fed being more hawkish than expected and the consequent expectation of 3 rises of 0.25% in 2022. EUR/USD 1.1310




Everyone will have read how Amazon is the first company to have a market capitalisation of $3 trillion but the stand out is that just 3 years ago Amazon was worth approximately 25% of the total value of the FTSE100. Now it is worth more than the whole index and considerably more than the total of the French CAC40 and the German DAX indices.


Major Indices (and Bitcoin)


And talking of those major indices, in 2021 the Dow Jones was up 18.8%, FTSE100 up 14.3%, S&P500 up 26.9%, Stoxx Euro 600 up 22.3%. Gold was down by 3.4%, Oil up by 55.1% and Bitcoin up by 59.9%.


Led Zeppelin


This day in 2009, Robert Plant of Led Zeppelin was voted Greatest Voice in Rock Ever by listeners on the Planet Rock radio station. Somewhat surprisingly to me at least, he beat Ian Gillan of Deep Purple, Paul Rogers of Free and Freddie Mercury of Queen all of whom should have comfortably beaten Robert Plant. Never mind that, Led Zeppelin are of course one of the best rock bands ever and here is one of their greatest songs which was released in 1971:

When The Levee Breaks:


If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break
If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break
When the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay

Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan, Lord
Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan
It’s got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home
Oh well, oh well, oh well

Don’t it make you feel bad
When you’re tryin’ to find your way home
You don’t know which way to go?
If you’re goin’ down south
They got no work to do
If you’re going down to Chicago

A-ah, a-ah, a-ah

Cryin’ won’t help you, prayin’ won’t do you no good
No, cryin’ won’t help you, prayin’ won’t do you no good
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move, ooh

All last night sat on the levee and moaned
All last night sat on the levee and moaned
Thinkin’ ’bout my baby and my happy home

Ah, ah, ah, ah
Ah, ah, ah, ah
I’m goin’ to Chicago


Have a Great Weekend!




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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