SGM-FX insights

UK Inflation   10 distinguished economists headed by Prof Tim Congdon have written a both strong and timely letter that was published in yesterday’s Financial Times. What they are warning is that due to the Bank of England’s GBP 150 Billion Nov 2020 asset purchase program, the UK is set for above 2% target inflation […]

Take off   April is usually a strong month for GBP. Due to the UK tax year’s end at the beginning of April, large corporations domiciled in the UK bolster demand for the UK Pound when repatriating overseas profits. This real money flow tends to provide a significant and tangible bid in GBP that sees […]

Compromise and Consensus   Those of us who have worked in Germany are familiar with these concepts or konzepts embedded solidly in post WW2 business culture (geschaftskultur). This weekend the CDU/CSU parties were hoping that there would be the first leading to the second in order for them to arrive with an agreed successor to […]

US Retail Sales   All those $1400 pandemic cheques for each and every US citizen may not have been fully spent but retail sales increased by 9.8% in March after a fall of 2.7% in February. Stripping out autos, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales still increased by 6.9% in March. While employment […]

This statement is false?   If you like a paradox you might be no stranger to unravelling self-contradictory statements like ‘this statement is false’ or ‘I am lying’, or perhaps puzzled over Achilles’ tortoise. But there’s an apparent paradox unravelling in the foreign exchange market this week. Following the release of the latest CFTC data […]

Retirement and the 4% Rule   Look away now unless you have a strong constitution! Conventional wisdom was that all one needed to do to ensure a stress free and funded retirement was create a pension split 60%/40% Equities to Bonds and in the first year of retirement draw a max of 4% of the […]

Food and Agriculture Organisation   This United Nations Agency reported yesterday that for the 10th consecutive month world food prices have risen in March. So if you have a sense that your weekly supermarket shop is getting dearer, you may well be right. The rises are led by vegetable oil, dairy product and meat prices. […]

It’s a Moderna world…   The whirlwind surrounding the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine continues with new warnings from UK and EU medical regulators flooding in yesterday. Following a review into the efficacy, benefits and risks associated with the vaccine the double-dose shot is once again in the firing line. The guidance from the European Medicines Agency is […]

Global Growth   With the IMF calling for global economic growth of 6% in 2021, markets are taking heart that this represents the largest increase in the past 50 years. That’s why they ignored the drop of 3.3% in 2020 being the largest fall since the 1950’s. The third IMF stat is perhaps the most […]

Head above water   GBP has struggled in recent weeks to find new momentum. Thanks to its somewhat meteoric rise so far this year, this lack of sustained upward price momentum has fuelled second guesses of a correction in the UK currency. Sterling’s range bound existence on a trade weighted basis this month has allowed […]

Europe‘s third wave   Rising infection rates across much of Europe have been leading to souring fortune for the Euro with the world’s most liquid currency pair EURUSD providing a good snapshot of the rising Eurozone concerns over the past weeks and months. Announcements of lockdown impositions across Europe have spilled out like clockwork with […]

Archegos   Much will be written interspersed with plenty of handwringing as to how Archegos Capital could have built up leverage to an extent which at present is unknown but is estimated at USD 50 Billion. An estimate of investment bank losses is (currently) tentatively set at USD 6 Billion. How and why? All investment […]