SGM-FX insights

Bullseye   It was apparent recently that the Rand had managed to duck and dive between two huge risks to emerge relatively unscathed. When inflation statistics and an interest rate decision passed on two consecutive days accompanied by only mild and measured market fluctuations not dissimilar to a normal day’s trading, it appeared that both […]

UK Job Market   With the fastest hiring rate for 23 years and job vacancies advertised at the highest rate for 3 years, market watchers might draw all sorts of conclusions, but before they do, they should remember where we started from at the low point of the pandemic and lock down one. It’s not […]

UK House Prices   With house prices reported as being up by an annual 10.9% and enjoying the fastest growth for 7 years with a month on month increase of 1.8% in May, what could possibly go wrong? While those in the South might be surprised that the average house price in the UK is […]

June 21   The UK’s ability to stick to its intended path out of the most recent lockdown has provided GBP with support. Had the UK missed those dates set forward in the roadmap out of the pandemic, Sterling crosses would be unlikely to be where they are today. The government’s ability to stick to […]

Framing   The Rand’s appreciation over the past few months has been significant. Against a strong and still rising GBP, ZAR is one of only a small handful of currencies that has gained ground versus the Pound so far this year. One of the major risks that could have abated further Rand strength presented itself […]

US Equity Markets   As a bellwether for investments’ savings and pensions around the world, the US equity markets are of course required watching. The Dow as at Friday night stood at 34,200, the S&P at 4,155 and Nasdaq at 13,471. There is a correlation between the absolute level of those markets and the amount […]

Australia   As we all know Australia has form with attracting foreigners in exchange for subsidised passage and a low cost of entry. In 1945 it was the so called Ten Pound Poms as British people who were given passage and the right to settle in exchange for GBP10 were known. An unforeseen consequence of […]

Japan   With the Japanese economy contracting in Q1 by an annualised 5.1%, the worry is that Japan is slipping back into recession defined as 2 straight quarters of negative growth given the lack of economic activity in Q2 on the back of the reduction in spending, slow vaccine rollout and a surprise reduction in […]

Runaway   If you follow commentary in the commodities and particularly metals markets you might agree that the following is a good summary of analysts’ dialogue. “Is it hard, can it be used to build stuff? Good: buy it.” Positioning in the hard commodities space has seldom been this bullish on the price of underlying […]

US Labour Market Bottleneck   Why was the US jobs market weaker in April than expected and likely to remain so? With 7.5 million more people out of work than a year ago, the US is looking for answers as to why people are not getting back to work. The answers are likely to be: […]

Germany September 2021 federal election   Young, moderate, photogenic and Green, Annalene Baerbock has a real shot at succeeding Angela Merkel. With support for the Greens running at an unprecedented 28%, life could well be about to change for Germany as agendas gravitate towards sustainability. It is Germany’s neighbours to the East that are watching […]

Sell-off, Sell-on   Yesterday markets were perhaps as non-directional as they have been in a long time. Usually, the set of expectations moving into an important event or data release is well defined and it’s possible to place your finger on exactly how the market should react to certain tangible outcomes from such events. The […]