SGM-FX insights

Et tu Brute?!   Friday of last weekend was the day 2062 years ago in 44BC that Julius Caesar was murdered by a conspiracy of senators. Theresa May must have heaved a sigh of relief that she survived Friday and no doubt was thinking that a modern day JC opposite her deserved the same fate! […]

Indian Elections   One of the great logistical exercises globally is due to start on April 11: 900M Indian voters will head to the polls to elect 545 candidates over 9 separate voting days depending on location with the last day of voting on 19-05-19. Counting starts on 23-05-19 and will take 3 days. The […]

Italy: Chinese Checkers?   China is taking advantage of weakness in the Italian economy to increase its influence and strengthen ties between the two nations. China is keen to gain ownership of Italian ports such as Genoa to give them access to the Northern European markets by road from the Italian port. Italy is the […]

La Belle France and La Bella Italia   The French Government in the past 3 years has been able to fund itself at between minus 0.75% and minus 0.25%- it now is at pretty much in the middle of that range. In other words, lenders to France are paying 0.50% for the privilege of lending […]

A Busy Day for the UK Prime Minister   Apart from (just?) trying to save her Brexit deal, Theresa May read the lesson at Westminster Abbey at yesterday’s Commonwealth Service with all senior members of the Royal Family in attendance; then she embarked on a series of shuttle diplomacy telephone calls with Brussels; last for […]

Europe: In a period of continued weakness and pervasive uncertainty   Those words are Mario Draghi’s who as Governor of the European Central Bank is well qualified to use them. European interest rates will not rise before 2020 and a cheap funding scheme for banks will be re-launched aimed specifically at Spanish and Italian banks. […]

Brexit status and timetable as at Friday 08-03-19: the next week.   In the slow motion car crash saga of cliff hangers and deadlines, the UK Parliament has decided that today is the last day for a deal to be done ahead of the vote on the Prime Minister’s deal which has now been confirmed […]

Global Markets   Dow sold off down to 25,673 and FTSE flat at 7196. Oil WTI at $56. Gold unchanged at $1303. GBP slipping lower every day on increasingly likely chance of NoDeal Brexit. USD marginally weaker. Today it’s ECB watch day- watch out for them moving growth forecasts lower. OECD is now forecasting global growth […]

Global Markets   GBP weaker following increased speculation that UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox has not achieved much in the way of success on his trip yesterday to Brussels. No marked impact from Governor Mark Carney’s testimony to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee.FTSE up 49 at 7183, Dow pretty much flat at 25,806. […]

  Oil WTI easier at $56.32, FTSE at 7134 and Dow at 25,819. GBP has given up the gains made last week and is now back to previous levels against USD and EUR as markets weigh the likely path towards 29-03-19 and more immediately to 12-03-19.   With just over a week to go until […]

Global Markets   With stock markets ending the week in a positive frame of mind following more encouraging economic data from China and the perceived likelihood of a trade deal, the USD strengthened across the board for the third day in succession. This has outweighed the negativity of the India-Pakistan tensions and the failure of […]

Markets   Stock markets globally fell on the news that the Trump-Kim summit at the Hotel Metropole in Hanoi- made famous notably by “Hanoi Jane” Fonda during the Vietnam war in the early 1970’s- had produced no outcome other than Trump explaining that the deal on offer from North Korea to decommission some of its […]