SGM-FX insights

German investor sentiment   The ZEW economic research institute reported that June investor economic sentiment fell from 79.8 to 63.3 despite Reuters having forecast it to only drop to 75.2. If this sounds to be an imprecise science, it is. Germans, it appears, at least according to these polls have quite sharp mood swings. Never […]

Two-Speed Europe   It’s a phrase often linked to the two varying speeds of European integration between the core and periphery of the Union. Today, the most obvious mismatch within the EU is how quickly and severely post-pandemic inflation is affecting core versus peripheral economies. Monetary, economic, fiscal and political asymmetries have the capacity to […]

US Employment   With 9 million jobs remaining unfilled and less than 10% of unemployed actually looking for work, the USA is only too aware of why Covid plus the various Covid support schemes are not successful in getting Americans back to work. Despite nearly 60% of the adult working population and 46% of the […]

Oil   With WTI oil up almost USD1 and now at USD 74.98 prices are likely to firm more in the second half of 2021 as demand increases with economies returning to pre-pandemic conditions and travel restarting. The other determinant is the OPEC Meeting yesterday which having deliberated on the supply volumes for H2, decided […]

Antipodeans   There’s no doubt we’re in a widespread recovery phase from the global pandemic. With the exception of a handful of tail risks including viral variants, public adherence and seasonality, the global economy is rather steadfast in its pursuit of a post-Covid world. In accordance with that recovery comes a phase of increased risk […]

Eco Warriors   Those motorists who buy electric cars based on burnishing their green credentials might be interested to learn that the Chicago based Argonne National Laboratory has completed a study on how far one has to drive before the benefits of an electric car outweigh the harm done to the environment of a conventional petrol […]

Billy No Mates   GBP had been well supported over the past two weeks for two major reasons. One which continues to be true is that the economic fundamentals of the UK economy provide a palatable backdrop for GBP. The other, partially as a result of the former reality but also in anticipation of a […]

Australia   A country that has a small population for its size-26 million at present-Australia has just pared back its forecasts for both economic and population growth. By 2061, so in 40 years time, the population is forecast to grow to 38 million. The economy had been slated to grow by 3% a year, but […]

Germany   Was it the fact that the national team clawed back to draw with Hungary on Wednesday night that cheered them up? No matter, German business morale rose more than expected in June as companies’ assessment of conditions improved and optimism was up according to the Ifo Institute. The Bundesbank is forecasting German growth […]

Bullseye   If you’re anything like me your bank will also be on the phone to you wondering why you’ve been withdrawing sums of cash from various cash points only to deposit them back into the bank 5 minutes later. As I’ve promised my bank, there is nothing untoward about this behaviour. Rather, I’ve been […]

VW   Despite the global chip shortage affecting not just VW but all car manufacturers, VW is sticking to its 2021 profit forecast. Despite lower production, VW will be able to make up the deficit by selling off inventory and still produce 800,000 vehicles which will deliver an operating profit margin of between 5.5% and […]

Hot Air   A change of tide has begun in the foreign exchange market. However, it is not one that will float all ships. Finally, an acknowledgement of rising inflation expectations in the United States and globally has coerced the Federal Reserve to begin the path towards a discussion about tapering rates it seems. Their […]