SGM-FX insights

Central Bank Policies   When a billion Pounds’/Dollars’ worth of stimulus becomes a drop in the ocean it is easy to begin to take the role of central bank policies for granted in recovering from an economic crisis. In fact, in the realm of economics and monetary studies there’s very mixed wisdom on the role […]

Long March 5B Yao 2   In case it passed you by, over the weekend the USA and China were in a spat over China’s irresponsible action in launching a large rocket into space without considering where the block of metal might fall upon re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere. It could crash pretty much anywhere […]

Inflation Nutters (both sides of the pond)   This was the term which ex Bank of England Governor Mervyn King gave to those who fretted and vocalized their conviction concern that inflation was lurking behind every economic rock when Governor now Lord King was in office between 2003 and 2013. In fact he was of […]

LOOK OUT – GBP TODAY   At the same time as the monetary policy committee at the Bank of England get ready to deliver their latest decision, the polls in Scotland will already be open. So too the byelection in Hartlepool will be underway with parties on both sides of the dispatch box eagerly awaiting the […]

U.S. Trade Deficit   March data reflects a record high of $74.4 billion fuelled by rapacious domestic demand which is increasing imports. Despite this and a mini flash crash which saw 0.5% wiped off equity values late morning in Europe yesterday due to reports of a Chinese fighter entering Taiwanese airspace, USD a little stronger […]

The global Dollar   Before US inflation data put a cap on US yields and sent the Dollar packing from its recent highs, US outperformance was the main story in FX markets. An unwavering federal reserve in the face of economic growth and an elevated yet palatable rate of inflation allowed the strong Dollar thesis […]

US Federal Reserve   Confirmation of continuing easy money conditions from the Fed: bond buying will continue until the twin goals of full(er) employment and inflation at 2% have been achieved. Jay Powell underlined that by saying that while March employment stats were very good, the Fed will not jeopardise progress made by shutting off […]

Cheese   Before I get to the astronomical rally in cheese futures that I know you have been eagerly awaiting, let’s take a look at what the Federal Reserve said last night in one of its most defining monetary policy meetings in a decade. As we discussed recently, the market knows that global central banks […]

Corporate USA   Yesterday POTUS, Joe Biden announced an increase in the minimum hourly wage for federal contractors from $10.95 to $15, an increase of almost 37%. Corporate USA is under no illusions that this will feed through to the bottom lines of non federal corporations. The categories of federal workers that this will apply […]

ZAR FWD   The Rand had gained in excess of 25% versus the US Dollar since the peak of the asset sell off during the early stages of the pandemic. Sure, you could argue that the notable part about that statistic is the extent of the sell-off during the fire sale of risk assets in […]

Italy   As of last week, Italy’s multi party cabinet were at odds and unable to agree on the terms of the funding from the EU. Then on Saturday PM Mario Draghi, no stranger to last minute brinkmanship, made a call to Ursula von der Leyen and hey presto: EUR 220 Billion(USD 266 Billion) agreed […]

US Employment   Markets welcomed the lowest set of jobless claims figures since March 2020. New job creation plus fewer redundancies means that figures are moving well in the right direction. While there are still 17.4 million unemployed in the USA, there is little doubt that the employment market is showing that there is a […]