SGM-FX insights

Framing   The Rand’s appreciation over the past few months has been significant. Against a strong and still rising GBP, ZAR is one of only a small handful of currencies that has gained ground versus the Pound so far this year. One of the major risks that could have abated further Rand strength presented itself […]

US Equity Markets   As a bellwether for investments’ savings and pensions around the world, the US equity markets are of course required watching. The Dow as at Friday night stood at 34,200, the S&P at 4,155 and Nasdaq at 13,471. There is a correlation between the absolute level of those markets and the amount […]

Australia   As we all know Australia has form with attracting foreigners in exchange for subsidised passage and a low cost of entry. In 1945 it was the so called Ten Pound Poms as British people who were given passage and the right to settle in exchange for GBP10 were known. An unforeseen consequence of […]

Japan   With the Japanese economy contracting in Q1 by an annualised 5.1%, the worry is that Japan is slipping back into recession defined as 2 straight quarters of negative growth given the lack of economic activity in Q2 on the back of the reduction in spending, slow vaccine rollout and a surprise reduction in […]

Runaway   If you follow commentary in the commodities and particularly metals markets you might agree that the following is a good summary of analysts’ dialogue. “Is it hard, can it be used to build stuff? Good: buy it.” Positioning in the hard commodities space has seldom been this bullish on the price of underlying […]

US Labour Market Bottleneck   Why was the US jobs market weaker in April than expected and likely to remain so? With 7.5 million more people out of work than a year ago, the US is looking for answers as to why people are not getting back to work. The answers are likely to be: […]

Germany September 2021 federal election   Young, moderate, photogenic and Green, Annalene Baerbock has a real shot at succeeding Angela Merkel. With support for the Greens running at an unprecedented 28%, life could well be about to change for Germany as agendas gravitate towards sustainability. It is Germany’s neighbours to the East that are watching […]

Sell-off, Sell-on   Yesterday markets were perhaps as non-directional as they have been in a long time. Usually, the set of expectations moving into an important event or data release is well defined and it’s possible to place your finger on exactly how the market should react to certain tangible outcomes from such events. The […]

Scotland and Independence   A number of readers have asked for a precis of what Scotland leaving the UK would mean in headlines for Scotland. Taking out the rhetoric, these are the answers: Fiscal Deficit- due to peak at 25% of Scottish GDP and then reduce in the next 4 years to 9%, an immediate […]

Central Bank Policies   When a billion Pounds’/Dollars’ worth of stimulus becomes a drop in the ocean it is easy to begin to take the role of central bank policies for granted in recovering from an economic crisis. In fact, in the realm of economics and monetary studies there’s very mixed wisdom on the role […]

Long March 5B Yao 2   In case it passed you by, over the weekend the USA and China were in a spat over China’s irresponsible action in launching a large rocket into space without considering where the block of metal might fall upon re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere. It could crash pretty much anywhere […]

Inflation Nutters (both sides of the pond)   This was the term which ex Bank of England Governor Mervyn King gave to those who fretted and vocalized their conviction concern that inflation was lurking behind every economic rock when Governor now Lord King was in office between 2003 and 2013. In fact he was of […]