SGM-FX insights

This statement is false?   If you like a paradox you might be no stranger to unravelling self-contradictory statements like ‘this statement is false’ or ‘I am lying’, or perhaps puzzled over Achilles’ tortoise. But there’s an apparent paradox unravelling in the foreign exchange market this week. Following the release of the latest CFTC data […]

Retirement and the 4% Rule   Look away now unless you have a strong constitution! Conventional wisdom was that all one needed to do to ensure a stress free and funded retirement was create a pension split 60%/40% Equities to Bonds and in the first year of retirement draw a max of 4% of the […]

Food and Agriculture Organisation   This United Nations Agency reported yesterday that for the 10th consecutive month world food prices have risen in March. So if you have a sense that your weekly supermarket shop is getting dearer, you may well be right. The rises are led by vegetable oil, dairy product and meat prices. […]

It’s a Moderna world…   The whirlwind surrounding the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine continues with new warnings from UK and EU medical regulators flooding in yesterday. Following a review into the efficacy, benefits and risks associated with the vaccine the double-dose shot is once again in the firing line. The guidance from the European Medicines Agency is […]

Global Growth   With the IMF calling for global economic growth of 6% in 2021, markets are taking heart that this represents the largest increase in the past 50 years. That’s why they ignored the drop of 3.3% in 2020 being the largest fall since the 1950’s. The third IMF stat is perhaps the most […]

Head above water   GBP has struggled in recent weeks to find new momentum. Thanks to its somewhat meteoric rise so far this year, this lack of sustained upward price momentum has fuelled second guesses of a correction in the UK currency. Sterling’s range bound existence on a trade weighted basis this month has allowed […]

Europe‘s third wave   Rising infection rates across much of Europe have been leading to souring fortune for the Euro with the world’s most liquid currency pair EURUSD providing a good snapshot of the rising Eurozone concerns over the past weeks and months. Announcements of lockdown impositions across Europe have spilled out like clockwork with […]

Archegos   Much will be written interspersed with plenty of handwringing as to how Archegos Capital could have built up leverage to an extent which at present is unknown but is estimated at USD 50 Billion. An estimate of investment bank losses is (currently) tentatively set at USD 6 Billion. How and why? All investment […]

Hey Ho up she rises   Carrying 18,300 containers, the cost of the stranded Ever Given vessel in the Suez Canal was costly for its operators, Taiwanese Evergreen, the privately operated canal, global trade, and me. Perhaps my IKEA package that spent nearly a week of it’s pre-delivery life on that boat stranded just outside […]

Consensus 2021   As we entered 2021 the consensus trade was: weaker USD on the back of President Biden’s trillion dollars of stimulus leading to easy money and a rise in the stock market. Well the last part has been right but at the end of the first quarter, it is clear that the relationship […]

US Federal Reserve   Strong comfort for the markets from the Fed promising to ensure that the US economic recovery is broad and well established before removing its market assistance. USD still firm on the back of this trading at 1.1760 v EUR. Unemployment falling but still 18.9 million drawing benefits hence the Fed focusing […]

More stimulus?!   When you look at the inflation concerns that have been developing in the US economy as a result of Biden’s €1.9tn stimulus package you may have thought it would be madness to start planning yet another round of $3tn worth of stimulus. After all, if people thought that the existing package risked […]