SGM-FX insights

The latest Euro-zone money supply growth data was in line with consensus expectations as growth slowed slightly to 4.9% from 5.0% previously while private loan growth was slightly stronger for the month at 2.2% from 2.0% previously.   Euro-zone economic confidence edged higher for February to the highest level since 2011 which underpinned growth hopes. […]

The latest CFTC weekly data recorded a decline in the net long dollar position to the lowest level since October 11th as uncertainty continued to undermine long dollar positions with the main shift a further increase in long positions in commodity currencies.   The dollar nudged slightly higher on Monday and the Euro again tested […]

ECB minutes from January’s meeting confirmed that the central bank would look through increases in inflation triggered solely by a surge in energy prices and would concentrate on whether there was any evidence of second-round inflation effects.   The ECB expected that overall inflation pressures would remain muted despite an important element of uncertainty surrounding […]

Sterling maintained a solid tone against the dollar ahead of the US open on Thursday, but continued to hit resistance above the 1.2500 level. The Euro regained the 0.8500 level which helped underpin confidence with a further advance to the 0.8550 area as Sterling overall lost support with markets still wary over the risk of […]

The US data remained robust with initial jobless claims increasing only slightly to 239,000 in the latest week from 234,000 previously which still indicated a strong labour market with layoffs remaining at low levels. There was a small decline in housing starts to an annual rate of 1.25mn from 1.28mn previously while permits rose to […]

UK consumer prices declined 0.5% in January and, although the year-on-year rate increased to 1.8% from 1.6% which was the highest rate since June 2014, this was slightly lower than the consensus forecast of a sharper increase to 1.9%.   There was significant upward pressure on transport costs which was offset by a decline in […]

The US NFIB small-business confidence index edged higher to 105.9 for February from 105.8 previously while there was a stronger than expected reading for producer prices with a 0.6% monthly gain.   In her prepared comments to the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chair Yellen reiterated that it was dangerous to wait too long before raising […]

Euro-zone GDP growth was revised down to 0.4% in the updated flash Q4 reading from the provisional 0.5% which will tend to dampen expectations that the Euro-zone economy is gaining momentum.   There was also a weaker than expected reading for the German ZEW investor sentiment index, although the overall market impact was limited.

According to the New York Federal Reserve, one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.0% in the latest survey from 2.8% previously and the highest reading since the middle of 2015.   Inflation expectations will be an important element of Fed thinking over the next few months, especially as the FOMC had worried previously that low expectations […]

The EU Commission revised its 2017 Euro-zone GDP growth forecast marginally higher to 1.6% from 1.5% previously, although this was still lower than the 2016 outcome and the underlying tone remained generally downbeat with a high degree of uncertainty over both domestic and US developments.   The inflation forecast for this year was revised higher […]

Sterling was unable to make any headway against the dollar during the European session on Monday, but it was able to strengthen against the Euro for the sixth successive session as the single currency dipped to lows around 0.8460.   According to data from Visa, UK consumer spending slowed to a five-month low of 0.4% […]

The EU Commission revised its 2017 Euro-zone GDP growth forecast marginally higher to 1.6% from 1.5% previously, although this was still lower than the 2016 outcome and the underlying tone remained generally downbeat with a high degree of uncertainty over both domestic and US developments.   The inflation forecast for this year was revised higher […]