SGM-FX insights

14 Days   Bond yields and commodities continue to climb higher at a rapid pace. Commodity indices have now surpassed pre-pandemic levels amidst expectations of inflation around the corner. Commodities in particular are benefitting from analysts’ predictions that the restoration of pre-pandemic demand will outpace supply normalisation in the short-run. The ECB President moved yesterday […]

Inflation   A survey recently undertaken in the USA found that both market professionals and also retail investors when polled, by a significant majority responded that they were not concerned about inflation. Without wishing to rain on that particular parade, we should all remember that only approximately half of the population have any experience of […]

US Employment   Keenly watched as a barometer of not only the US but also the global economy, initial claims for unemployment benefits was higher than expected this week and compounded by a revision upwards by 55,000 in the claims for the preceding week meant that the market did not like it with USD weakening […]

Rates   Yields on longer dates US debt have now largely wiped out their post March 2020 collapse. The sell-off in global government debt is yet one more symptom of the so-called reflation trade and the market’s bet on normality returning over the coming months and quarters. On the one hand, with a huge fiscal […]

US Dollar   With US consumer sentiment falling in the last two weeks and indications of slower job growth, hopes for a fast snap back for the US economy have been dented but not badly damaged-see below. What this adds up to is a drop of 1.5% in the USD over the past fortnight. All […]

False signal   As a barometer of the world economy the price of oil is watched closely. Due to the relatively inelastic demand and supply of oil, at least in the short run, higher oil prices tend to be a signal of a more active global economy. Therefore movement of energy market tickers higher can […]

St Valentine   Named after two martyrs both named Valentine executed by Roman Emperor Claudius ll in the 3rd century AD on 14 February(14-02-0002), Valentines Day now enjoys worldwide commercial success. It started off as a pagan festival which was then adopted by the Catholic Church before taking off with cards, flowers and gifts being […]

Ocado   British online grocery, Ocado not only announced soaring annual earnings of 69% yesterday but felt sufficiently confident to announce that the future of food retailing had changed-for ever. No longer will shoppers choose to visit supermarkets, but will instead click and await delivery. Ocado’s hook up with Marks and Spencer is going very […]

501. V2   Having begun its program only a week ago, the plug has been pulled on South Africa’s immediate immunisation through vaccination plan. The first doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine entered South Africa last week, greeted at the airport by the President and ministerial officials who hailed the delivery as a milestone in […]

The Euro   Following Mario Draghi’s selection as Italy’s next Prime Minister, markets were upbeat on Italy’s prospects with the all important spread of 10 year Italian Bonds to German Bunds being at 100 basis points for the first time for a year having blown out to 240 basis points last April when Italy was […]

US Employment   Cheering news for the global economy from the US with initial jobless claims falling to a weekly 779,000 which suggests that US unemployment is beginning to reduce . Mid January there were 17.8 million Americans claiming unemployment benefits. Equities rallied on the news yesterday and the USD strengthened against most currencies; US […]

From President to Prime Minister   After passing on the ECB’s Presidency following eight full years in office, Mario Draghi was set to retire. However, yesterday Super Mario accepted the mandate offered by Italy’s Prime Minister Sergio Mattarella to form a new technocratic government. This follows the resignation of Giuseppe Conte in response to the […]