SGM-FX insights

Budget   For the past few days government sources have steered expectations surrounding the budget that was delivered to the House of Commons yesterday. As with most policy changes since the pandemic begun, very little was left to the announcement itself. The push towards higher corporation taxes, extension of the stamp-duty holiday and freezing of […]

Zhejiang Geely Holding Group   Owners of Volvo, Guangzhou based Zhejiang Geely has announced that they will simplify the Volvo range, create transparent pricing and go fully electric by 2030 having already pledged to be 50% electric by 2025. They now join Bentley, Ford and Jaguar, Land Rover that have made the same pledge to […]

No-taper tantrum   There are two critical moments in any public body’s response to an economic shock. The first is the initial reaction – how will governing institutions respond initially to reassure the markets and public alike to preserve as much normality as possible. Whilst the sustenance provided by these institutions throughout the course of […]

St David’s Day   A very happy St David’s Day to all of our Welsh readers. Canonised in 1120AD by Pope Callactus ll, St David died this day in 589AD. St David’s Day is marked by wearing either a daffodil or a leek (or both) and eating Welsh rarebit or cawl which is a broth […]

US Dollar   Despite showing a gain to above JPY 106, USD was at a 3 year low yesterday as the commodity currencies such as the AUD and CAD benefited, as did the EUR posting $1.2230. Copper traded at $9,500 a ton its highest in 10 years and 10 year USTreasuries yielded 1.46%.   Asian […]

CHF   By the standards of the Swiss Franc, crosses including EURCHF, GBPCHF, and USDCHF are moving alarmingly fast. The sell off the in Franc is not necessarily bad news for either the aggregate Swiss population nor the rest of the world. Alongside the push towards normalisation in real economies and markets alike, the still […]

UK Unemployment Since march 2020 the number of people in work has fallen by 726,000 which is a 5 year high in unemployment to 5.1%-more than 60% of those jobs lost are the under 25’s. Within that overall figure, in Q4 2020 the number of people employed declined by 114,000. The statistic that stands out […]

UK Unemployment   Since march 2020 the number of people in work has fallen by 726,000 which is a 5 year high in unemployment to 5.1%-more than 60% of those jobs lost are the under 25’s. Within that overall figure, in Q4 2020 the number of people employed declined by 114,000. The statistic that stands […]

14 Days   Bond yields and commodities continue to climb higher at a rapid pace. Commodity indices have now surpassed pre-pandemic levels amidst expectations of inflation around the corner. Commodities in particular are benefitting from analysts’ predictions that the restoration of pre-pandemic demand will outpace supply normalisation in the short-run. The ECB President moved yesterday […]

Inflation   A survey recently undertaken in the USA found that both market professionals and also retail investors when polled, by a significant majority responded that they were not concerned about inflation. Without wishing to rain on that particular parade, we should all remember that only approximately half of the population have any experience of […]

US Employment   Keenly watched as a barometer of not only the US but also the global economy, initial claims for unemployment benefits was higher than expected this week and compounded by a revision upwards by 55,000 in the claims for the preceding week meant that the market did not like it with USD weakening […]

Rates   Yields on longer dates US debt have now largely wiped out their post March 2020 collapse. The sell-off in global government debt is yet one more symptom of the so-called reflation trade and the market’s bet on normality returning over the coming months and quarters. On the one hand, with a huge fiscal […]