SGM-FX insights

OPEC   Today is OPEC’s 60th birthday and on this day in 1960 it was founded in Baghdad, Iraq with 5 members. Today headquartered in Vienna since 1965, there are 15 members and the alliance is no less fractious than it was in its youth. WTI at the end of last week stood at $37 […]

Delphic words from ECB President Lagarde   For someone who espouses clear communication, Christine Lagarde gave a masterclass in opacity on the future path of the EUR exchange rate yesterday at the ECB press conference. Markets cautiously pushed EUR higher while CL was speaking to give the ECB the message that they would continue to […]

Who goes there?   EURUSD has been gradually unwinding it’s overvalued position upon the expectation that the ECB will attempt to ‘talk down’ the Euro. Despite a track record of doing so within the central bank, telling currency markets what to do is no simple thing. The consensus forecast for today’s monetary policy decision is […]

Currencies   As headlined here in the past weeks, currencies are seeing some big moves at present with GBP suffering Brexit and Covid nerves, EUR undergoing some pre-ECB meeting nerves ahead of tomorrow and USD seeing a correction. Definitely timely to put protection in place and the deployment of sage of Limit Orders. GBP seeing […]

8th time lucky…     As the eighth formal round of talks between the European Union and the United Kingdom get underway in London today Sterling traders are facing the reality of a no-deal conclusion to the transition period in only a few months’ time. Despite the relentless Brexplainers published, this critical moment for the […]

Eastern Mediterranean   Turkey’s President Erdogan ramped up the pressure further on an already pressurised situation yesterday with threats to Greece. The issue is the oil and gas especially in the sea around Cyprus which clearly belongs to Greek Cyprus. Erdogan’s response to that is that he does not accept that ownership so he is […]

US Presidential Election   With just over 2 months to go, it is worth understanding the importance of the Latino vote to the successful candidate. No Republican has won the Election without winning Florida since 1924 so Trump needs Florida as it represents 29 votes of the 270 electoral vote threshold that Trump needs to […]

Turning Tides   The protests in Hong Kong, tensions between the territory and China, and the mainland and the United States in turn, all encouraged speculative flows out of the Hong Kong Dollar as investors raised the possibility of the USDHKD peg breaking. The tide has turned for the Hong Kong Dollar with the pair […]

European Inflation   For the first time since May 2016 Euro-Zone inflation entered negative territory last month which increased the chances of the European central Bank needing to inject further stimulus to generate price growth. Inflation in the 19 countries fell to minus 0.2% versus the ECB target of just under 2%. The implication is […]

Just too good to be true? Can’t take my eyes off of EU(R).   Amongst the winners of the pandemic have been Gold, the Euro and increasingly the Pound Sterling. Sure, the first two have reached their highest rates in one case ever and in the other for several years but for the Pound to […]

Holiday Today   In London today is of course the late summer bank holiday. In the USA it is both National Eat Outside Day and National Bacon Day and yesterday was National Toasted Marshmallow Day. These are new kinds of celebrations for most non Americans but as non historical or religious based are at least […]

Japan: Abe Resignation   Markets in Europe are opening to the confirmation of Japan PM Abe’s resignation on health grounds. USD/JPY was trading at 106.93 and rapidly fell to 106.07 as markets processed the news. While it was known that Abe was unwell, the fact that he has been PM since 2012 and he is […]