Unaccustomed Union:
The direction to markets today has been clear: Brexit is looking good and the Dollar’s rivals are back. With the Pound and the Euro both respectively seeing enormous bids on the back of Brexit progress, the Dollar has lost some of the traction that has made it the trade of 2018. The Irish government has spoken officially, giving weight and credibility to May’s proposed solution to the Irish border; perhaps the greatest sticking point in negotiations besides the bill! The Republic suggested it would allow a complete customs union between the EU and the UK, affording May’s extant plans greater credibility. The Pound rallied magnificently, breaking through 1.13 against an admirably performing Euro and confidently surpassing 1.30 against an ailing Dollar. Ahead of a pivotal EU summit this month, Ireland’s concession is important, removing one of the obstacles that the UK could face before the European Council. Emerging market sell offs are prevalent within equity markets, yet downward pressure is still evident within the Rand and the Lira. Non-farm payroll data is released tomorrow afternoon, with all eyes on the performance of the domestic US economy.
Since Market Open:
- GBP: Ireland will accept a customs union with the UK after Brexit and supports backstop plans. The Pound and Euro rally, clawing back previous losses.
- EUR: Post-Brexit trade is pivotal for the Eurozone too; the Euro advances back through 1.15 against the Dollar.
- USD: There’s limited Dollar demand ahead of tomorrow’s much anticipated non-farm payrolls data. The Dollar slides as it loses ground to its rallying peers
- EM: Stocks continue to underperform in emerging markets generating further losses for EM currencies alike.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – British pound
Humphrey Percy
Fri 13 Jun 2025
British pound Sterling finds itself in the limelight and trading at its recent highs as somewhat improbably a couple of bolder market commentators have suggested the UK will benefit as a result of the disaffection with the USA and the USD at present. Those commentators have obviously not been following the commentary about UK Chancellor […]
Daily Brief – EU Inflation
Humphrey Percy
Wed 4 Jun 2025
EU Inflation Paving the way for a 25bp rate cut tomorrow, EU inflation came in at 1.9% on the back of uncertainty, lack of consumer confidence and people sitting on their cash. So overall good on inflation but a sign of less good things in the EU. As ever, the overall inflation figure had some […]
Daily Brief – UK Employment
Humphrey Percy
Wed 11 Jun 2025
UK Employment Real life consequences of policies that fulfil Chancellor Reeves’ agenda: this time we will not dwell on the plainly evident politics of envy stuff about targeting the higher earners, stuffing the non-doms, and even deciding to double tax those wishing to pay for private education or invest in property through second homes. This […]
