Morning Brief – Tuesday 9th

A day of resignations:

The US Dollar and the Rand are being moved the most within FX markets, awakened by important resignations on their respective soils. In the United States of America, Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, has resigned representing yet another high-profile exit from Trump’s inner circle of governors and diplomats. Speaking in the Oval Office this afternoon, the resignation appears to be accompanied by limited controversy, with mutual support being demonstrated as the individuals spoke alongside each other in Washington. The Dollar had received a considerable bid this morning amidst weak Euro, Sterling and European equity market performances. Throughout the afternoon and an increasingly risk-off tone, the Dollar has given back some of its gains in favour of the Pound. The same story perseveres this morning, with markets dominated by Brexit border concerns, balanced against US economics and Italian trauma. The Rand gained considerable value amidst the resignation of South African Finance Minister, Nhlanhla Nene. The controversy surrounding South Africa today stemmed from Nene’s self-confessed implication within the Gupta scandal, contradicting his previous claims of innocence and isolation. Ridding South Africa’s economic governance from the influence of the Guptas through the vessel of Nene represents a reduction in economic and political risk, resulting in the confusing appreciation of the emerging market currency.

Since Market Open:

• GBP:   Rumours continue to generate choppy trading conditions within Sterling markets. Broad optimism lifts the Pound post-4pm London time.  

• EUR:   Italy’s Finance Minister, Giovanni Tria, has admitted that the nation is feeling the wrath of international markets, signalling towards more moderate and predictable policy. Markets fail to appreciate the comments with the Euro trading down on the day and the yield on 10-year government bonds hitting 3.5%.

• USD:   The IMF slashes growth expectations amidst an increasingly messy trade war. The safe haven of the Dollar continues to provide shelter to international investors.

• EM:    The Rand gains value despite political turmoil with further impression of the consolidation in Ramaphosa’s governance hard to miss.

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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