SGM-FX insights

Exchange Rates   We have written previously about the low level of exchange rate volatility in the past year and it is now official: exchange rate swings are at a low for the past 5 years. Euro/USD 3 month volatility is running at a third of the norm over the past 18 years. The closely […]

Great edifices, like great mountains, are the work of centuries:     I should think many of you reading this brief right now have visited, seen, or at least heard of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. No doubt too that you have spotted the saddening news of the fire that last night caused as-yet […]

Markets   At the start of Easter week markets are looking to the start of Golden Week in Japan this time with a further holiday period with the new Emperor’s accession. The longest continuous closure of the Japan market since WW2 is causing a few frayed nerves. In the UK currency, credit and equity markets […]

Market   As further evidence of a cooling in the global economy surfaced this week, it was inevitable that a scapegoat would be sought. Not only Europe but also the IMF are getting in on the act to blame Brexit. In currency world this week EUR has weakened versus USD and GBP has held up […]

The British stereotype can be a confusing one. The French call us “Roast beef”, I suppose due to our affinity to the quintessentially British Sunday roast and, one would assume, partially in retaliation to being referred to as frogs. Internationally, are we not also supposed to love a good cup of tea and love a […]

GBP/EUR     For all those affected by this currency pair the tendency is to focus on GBP and its changing daily/hourly strength or weakness due to the torrid action in Westminster. As perceptions that a NoDeal is out of the picture, GBP strengthens and then as news emerges that PM May and Leader of […]

Omnishables:   Taking the acclaimed title of Oxford Dictionaries word of the Year 2012, “Omnishambles” is a word which is normally deployed in relative proximity to a photograph of the former Foreign Secretary and Vote Leave figurehead, Boris Johnson. To my mind today, it’s an appropriate one-word encapsulation of global politics. The general decay in […]

Italy   At the end of 2018, Italy agreed a budget with Brussels and that sorted things out right? Wrong. Italy has debt of EUR 3 Trillion or 3 thousand billion. According to the OECD the Italian economy will contract in 2019 and Italian debt will grow to between 2.5 and 3% of GDP in […]

Mexico   Another week, another on off threat from President Trump: this time to close the US border with Mexico. No avocadoes is the least of the problems faced by Texas and California which would be hardest hit. The aim is to stem the flow of illegal drugs and immigrants from Mexico but while it […]

Markets   Apparent good progress on US Sino Trade talks but not on US European trade with France exerting its ability to prevent talks starting with the US: a risk strategy given the tariffs that are threatened for the Euro car industry. Bitcoin is on a high for the year now above $5000. Stock markets […]

Titanic Time?   SGM-FX veteran Graham exhausted with trying to explain Brexit to his clients over the past 3 years has asked me for 3 examples of things that had taken less time to accomplish (NB accomplish….!) and here they are: Building the Titanic( 2 ¼ years) Flying the 35 million miles from Earth to […]

Ukraine and echoes of Ken Dodd   Congratulations to Presidential hopeful Volodymyr Zelensky, a professional comedian with no political experience at all, who won the first round on Sunday. Reminds me of George Carman QC who while seeking to explain to the judge in 1989 that his client Ken Dodd should be acquitted, said: “Accountants […]