SGM-FX insights

With Super Thursday upon us, considerable volatility lies ahead for Sterling, and for that matter global, currency markets. At midday today, the minutes from the meeting of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee will be released. Only thirty minutes later, Dr Mark Carney, the Bank’s governor, will hold a press conference. Expectations for a […]

If it ain’t broke… Fix it. That’s certainly been the message and driver of the European Union (or its predecessors, the previously unbroken European Economic Community, or functioning European Coal and Steel Community). This observation, be it a criticism or a compliment, can’t be levied at the EU exclusively: everything human, perhaps even living, with […]

As things look to have cooled off within the Korean Peninsula, the nuclear problem looms its head in another area; this time Iran. The run up to the decision had numerous impacts upon markets, with the brunt of the volatility being felt in oil markets.   Following the lifting of sanctions in line with the […]

The signals of last night’s monetary policy decision by the US Federal reserve appear to have been misread. In fact, the initial reaction across equity, treasury and FX markets appeared to imply that markets expected the FED to raise rates during this meeting, despite their persistent and vocal admonitions that a rate hike is not […]

  As Sterling has hit a year-to-date low this week, the US Dollar has rallied and, in turn, trades at its highest value of 2018 so far. The market snapshot this morning shows a flat Pound Sterling along with a dampened Euro. Despite weak inflation data in the Eurozone being announced this morning, the single […]

Since a Consumer Price Inflation report on 18th April, the Pound Sterling spot index has lost over 5%. The GBP index provides a holistic picture of the Pound’s performance conditioned upon the economy’s relative exposure to respective currency pairs. By purely reflecting the strength of the Pound sterling without the influence of idiosyncratic contra currencies, […]

  A minor weakness in the Euro over the last week has helped to propel the GBPEUR cross to the precipice of the psychological 1.16 barrier. A potential fatigue arising across the Eurozone for concession building and monetary, fiscal and economic integration is one of the main reasons behind the decline.   On Tuesday, the […]

  At 09:30 yesterday morning, the Pound was in momentary free fall as investors priced out the positive risk of an increase in interest rates in May and into 2019. As the imperative monetary policy decision on the 10th May draws ever closer, analysis and qualifications of future inflation expectations will be highly salient to […]

  Following yesterday’s chronic bout of Sterling weakness, the Pound has opened weaker for the second consecutive day this week. Yesterday evening saw the heads of state of Commonwealth nations gather together at an event in London hosted by the UK Prime Minster Theresa May. As the market opens this morning, investors appear uncertain whether […]

  The European sovereign debt crisis that gripped the eurozone at the beginning of this decade has left the bloc with rose tinted spectacles. During the crisis, the economic performance of key Eurozone member states tumbled considerably. Shown in the Graph below, the economic growth rate within previously flourishing and affluent member states tumbled during […]

  The Pound Sterling has flipped back and forth from an infatuation with politics, to an inescapable reliance upon economics. The phenomenon is partially responsible for creating the unprecedented channel trade that GBPEUR has crabbed along over the last six months. Supported at a little above 1.1050 on several occasions in October, the GBPEUR cross […]

  The Euro may have rightly earned its default position of strength and power that is so frequently actively and passively attributed to it when discussing Brexit. One of the principal arguments for forming a monetary Union is security, risk sharing and solidarity. When FX markets must move so freely in developed economies, why not band […]