SGM-FX insights

Europe: Wood and Trees   US: Oil on troubled waters     When the history books are written on the 2016-2019 period of the UK, it is odds on that writers will scratch their heads to explain that while the UK nationally was convulsed on leaving Europe or remaining in Europe, the mystery was why […]

Eyes on the Federal Reserve     Today sees the first-rate setting meeting of 2019 at the Federal Reserve. The market expectation is that they will leave rates unchanged but what is of much more focus is what is said about interest rate changes going forward. Will the Fed water down further expectations of rate […]

No Deal Exit Off The Table?       With UK MPs due to debate a number of amendments to TM’s Brexit Deal this evening at 7pm, markets are pricing in the assumption that a No Deal Brexit is off the table. GBP is set for its best monthly performance for a year so what […]

The calm before the storm……?     So that’s the question that markets face today: will tomorrow’s Brexit Debate in the UK Parliament be a damp squib defined as inconclusive or Parliament deciding to apply for an extension to the 29 March Brexit date? That perversely given that fact alone solves none of the Parliamentary […]

Once; Twice; Four times a winner!     The Pound was rewarded overnight by traders in the New York and Asian sessions, pushing the UK’s currency back towards levels not seen for some 20 months. Today’s session initially drew limited support for the Pound given the fresh resistance levels that the UK currency approached overnight. […]

EURgh.     Yet another dry, somewhat lacklustre and wholly uninspiring monetary policy press conference from the European Central Bank’s President Draghi. Eurgh!     During yet another round of disappointment to the long-term normalisation of European monetary policy, Draghi announced that rate setters acknowledged downside risks are growing, with the outlook for short run […]

Golden Week?     After a horrid close to last week with a loss in Sterling totalling some 0.4% on the day, this week has delivered a far brighter fortune to the Pound… so far. Soaring for the third consecutive day and putting Sterling on track for a record-breaking week. Enjoying a staggering 0.6% appreciation […]

It’s in the fine print:     The universe of possible Brexit outcomes now more than ever resembles an outstretched Chinese hand fan. Spanning a spectrum of some 180 degrees from hard Brexit on 29th March 2019 through to its polar opposite, no Brexit at all, the decisions facing the Prime Minister, and increasingly facing […]

B-Day!     The pun above was simply too good to miss. Musing upon its formation ahead of May’s speech before the House of Commons this afternoon its brilliance seemed surpassed only by its malleability and simplicity. Perhaps a pun on the gift giving on one’s day of birth should May’s speech have been a […]

Bah Humbug!     December’s retail sales data has disappointed expectations, encouraging a sell-off in the Pound Sterling throughout today’s trading session. Snapping a near-perfect week of gains for the domestic currency, the Pound traded at times on half of one percent weaker on an intraday basis. The headline figure of house hold goods was […]

EUREKA!   The Pound Sterling has enjoyed and Archimedes-esque Eureka moment. Hopefully, it won’t be caught short running nude through the street to brag to its head of state anytime soon… For the first time in a good while (if not ever) it has been the words of Jeremy Corbyn that kick started the rise […]

May Might Miss March M(deadline):     Sat in the pursuit of a synonym for ‘deadline’ that begins with the letter ‘M’ all for the sake of alliteration, it’s easy to let the tumultuous world of Brexit pass you by. Foreign exchange markets seem just as carefree unable to displace the Pound more than 0.01% […]