SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

US PCE prices rose 0.4% for January with an annual rate at 1.9% from 1.6% and close to the Fed’s 2% target

US PCE prices rose 0.4% for January with an annual rate at 1.9% from 1.6% and close to the Fed’s 2% target

SGM-FX Thu 2 Mar 2017

US PCE prices rose 0.4% for January with an annual rate at 1.9% from 1.6% and close to the Fed’s 2% target, although the core increase was held to 1.7% and unchanged from the previous month. The ISM manufacturing index rose to 57.7 for February from 56.0 in January and this was the highest reading […]

Dollar gains dominated the European morning on Wednesday after Fed Dudley’s hawkish comments overnight

Dollar gains dominated the European morning on Wednesday after Fed Dudley’s hawkish comments overnight

SGM-FX Thu 2 Mar 2017

Dollar gains dominated the European morning on Wednesday after Fed Dudley’s hawkish comments overnight and the Euro dipped to below 1.0550 against the US currency, although rising German yields eased net selling pressure to some extent.   German consumer process rose 0.6% in February with the annual inflation rate rising to 2.2% from 1.9% previously […]

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Hogg stayed close to the bank’s recent script and there was no market impact

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Hogg stayed close to the bank’s recent script and there was no market impact

SGM-FX Wed 1 Mar 2017

In testimony to the Treasury Select Committee, new Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Hogg stayed close to the bank’s recent script and there was no market impact.   There was choppy trading surrounding the Afternoon fix, but the UK currency was unable to gain sustained support, especially with real yields continuing to move against Sterling. […]

US fourth-quarter GDP was unrevised at 1.9% compared with expectations of an upward revision

US fourth-quarter GDP was unrevised at 1.9% compared with expectations of an upward revision

SGM-FX Wed 1 Mar 2017

US fourth-quarter GDP was unrevised at 1.9% compared with expectations of an upward revision to 2.1% as a higher estimate for consumer spending was offset by a downward revision to government spending and investment.   The Chicago PMI index was notably stronger than expected with an increase to 57.4 for February from 50.3 with robust […]

The Euro traded in narrow ranges during the European session

The Euro traded in narrow ranges during the European session

SGM-FX Wed 1 Mar 2017

The Euro traded in narrow ranges during the European session on Tuesday with resistance on approach to the 1.0600 area and little in the way of fresh Euro-zone developments as concerns surrounding the French Presidential election eased slightly.

The headline US durable goods orders report was stronger than expected

The headline US durable goods orders report was stronger than expected

SGM-FX Tue 28 Feb 2017

The headline US durable goods orders report was stronger than expected with a 1.8% increase for January, but the figure was inflated by aircraft orders and underlying sales declined 0.2% on the month following a revised 0.9% gain for January. Pending home sales data was weaker than expected with a 2.8% decline for January which […]

The latest Euro-zone money supply growth data was in line with consensus expectations

The latest Euro-zone money supply growth data was in line with consensus expectations

SGM-FX Tue 28 Feb 2017

The latest Euro-zone money supply growth data was in line with consensus expectations as growth slowed slightly to 4.9% from 5.0% previously while private loan growth was slightly stronger for the month at 2.2% from 2.0% previously.   Euro-zone economic confidence edged higher for February to the highest level since 2011 which underpinned growth hopes. […]

The latest CFTC weekly data recorded a decline in the net long dollar position to the lowest level since October

The latest CFTC weekly data recorded a decline in the net long dollar position to the lowest level since October

SGM-FX Mon 20 Feb 2017

The latest CFTC weekly data recorded a decline in the net long dollar position to the lowest level since October 11th as uncertainty continued to undermine long dollar positions with the main shift a further increase in long positions in commodity currencies.   The dollar nudged slightly higher on Monday and the Euro again tested […]

ECB minutes from January’s meeting confirmed that the central bank would look through increases in inflation

ECB minutes from January’s meeting confirmed that the central bank would look through increases in inflation

SGM-FX Fri 17 Feb 2017

ECB minutes from January’s meeting confirmed that the central bank would look through increases in inflation triggered solely by a surge in energy prices and would concentrate on whether there was any evidence of second-round inflation effects.   The ECB expected that overall inflation pressures would remain muted despite an important element of uncertainty surrounding […]

Sterling maintained a solid tone against the dollar ahead of the US open on Thursday

Sterling maintained a solid tone against the dollar ahead of the US open on Thursday

SGM-FX Fri 17 Feb 2017

Sterling maintained a solid tone against the dollar ahead of the US open on Thursday, but continued to hit resistance above the 1.2500 level. The Euro regained the 0.8500 level which helped underpin confidence with a further advance to the 0.8550 area as Sterling overall lost support with markets still wary over the risk of […]

US data remained robust with initial jobless claims increasing only slightly

US data remained robust with initial jobless claims increasing only slightly

SGM-FX Fri 17 Feb 2017

The US data remained robust with initial jobless claims increasing only slightly to 239,000 in the latest week from 234,000 previously which still indicated a strong labour market with layoffs remaining at low levels. There was a small decline in housing starts to an annual rate of 1.25mn from 1.28mn previously while permits rose to […]

UK consumer prices declined 0.5% in January

UK consumer prices declined 0.5% in January

SGM-FX Wed 15 Feb 2017

UK consumer prices declined 0.5% in January and, although the year-on-year rate increased to 1.8% from 1.6% which was the highest rate since June 2014, this was slightly lower than the consensus forecast of a sharper increase to 1.9%.   There was significant upward pressure on transport costs which was offset by a decline in […]

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