GBP…and where to over the next few weeks?
Never Gonna Give You Up-with thanks to Rick Astley (birthday #53 last week: congrats Rick!)
At the beginning of Valentine week (following the week that was) it is timely to remind ourselves of what the various outcomes could mean from the UK Parliament vote as and when it occurs. The chart below struck me as being useful and thanks to our friends at RBC CM who have collated it.
Possible scenarios and potential Sterling outcomes: worth preparing given that it now looks as if the Prime Minister’s plan is to tell Parliament that a vote will be pushed out from Thursday for at least two weeks.
Markets start the week with a further US Government Shutdown looking increasingly likely following Congressional talks running into trouble and the Democrats and Republicans rumoured not to be talking to each other over the weekend. Stock markets around the world closed last week mostly either small up or down with FTSE +0.73%, Dow +0.17% but with the Nikkei -2.40% despite the Hang Seng more positively at +1.36%-the Chinese market came back in a positive frame of mind after their New Year celebrations.
In Currency world GBP after some see saw days in the past couple of weeks remains steady and unchanged against USD and EUR and ZAR. That could come to an abrupt halt with increased volatility later in the week once the debate restarts on Brexit and the UK’s increasingly fractious relationship with Brussels. NB Brussels not necessarily all of Europe!
So in Rick’s words:
The Prime Minister is no doubt hoping that the Conservative Party this week of all weeks is:
Never gonna give you up
Never gonna let you down
Never gonna run around and desert you
Never gonna make you cry
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – Defiance
Charles Porter
Tue 12 May 2026
Defiance Yesterday’s market was defying one of two things: logic or gravity. Come to think of it, perhaps both. Take cable, GBPUSD, yesterday. The key events beyond minor data releases centred around any chatter from either side of the Iranian conflict and Starmer singing for his supper. Sing he did and tweet the President did, […]
Daily Brief – A technicality
Charles Porter
Thu 25 Jun 2026
A technicality Markets appeared to be fatigued by Trump’s Iran war before a ceasefire had even been agreed. This was evident from pricing that would have been considered complacent should the conflict have dragged on longer than it ultimately did. Now, that saga is far from over – it’s inevitable, for example, that as the […]
Daily Brief – Short-lived relief rally
Charles Porter
Tue 19 May 2026
Short-lived relief rally A tantrum in the bond market has continued to erode away at risk conditions in recent sessions. In the UK, the sell-off in gilts and corporate bonds has been particularly acute thanks to heightened political instability, the origins of which we have covered thoroughly in recent briefings. Yesterday, headlines delivered enough optimism […]
