SGM-FX insights

It’s still coming home..   But not for the three lions on a shirt. Instead, one line on a chart: retail sales. The release from the latest coronavirus lockdown saw investors, consumers and businesses alike participate in the economy in a way they hadn’t since the pandemic begun. The explosion of demand into markets from […]

The Wild East   Investors with especially strong constitutions looking for yield should take a deep breath then investigate China’s corporate bond market. More than $200 billion of debt has been issued by 80 property developers to finance China’s real estate market which accounts for 30% of the economy. 3 year debt currently yields 18%pa […]

Chinese Yuan   The People’s Bank of China yesterday pledged to keep the Yuan stable and will make adjustments to its policy tools to help China’s struggling exporters. For example the amount of cash reserves that banks need to hold could be reduced which will feed through to and assist small firms that have been […]

EU2   There have been significant developments in the monetary and therefore currency outlook in both the Eurozone and the United States. Unfolding and gathering pace during the US and Asian trading sessions, the price output has been limited with major crosses largely unchanged from their median price yesterday. It has been reported that policy […]

German investor sentiment   The ZEW economic research institute reported that June investor economic sentiment fell from 79.8 to 63.3 despite Reuters having forecast it to only drop to 75.2. If this sounds to be an imprecise science, it is. Germans, it appears, at least according to these polls have quite sharp mood swings. Never […]

Two-Speed Europe   It’s a phrase often linked to the two varying speeds of European integration between the core and periphery of the Union. Today, the most obvious mismatch within the EU is how quickly and severely post-pandemic inflation is affecting core versus peripheral economies. Monetary, economic, fiscal and political asymmetries have the capacity to […]

US Employment   With 9 million jobs remaining unfilled and less than 10% of unemployed actually looking for work, the USA is only too aware of why Covid plus the various Covid support schemes are not successful in getting Americans back to work. Despite nearly 60% of the adult working population and 46% of the […]

Oil   With WTI oil up almost USD1 and now at USD 74.98 prices are likely to firm more in the second half of 2021 as demand increases with economies returning to pre-pandemic conditions and travel restarting. The other determinant is the OPEC Meeting yesterday which having deliberated on the supply volumes for H2, decided […]

Antipodeans   There’s no doubt we’re in a widespread recovery phase from the global pandemic. With the exception of a handful of tail risks including viral variants, public adherence and seasonality, the global economy is rather steadfast in its pursuit of a post-Covid world. In accordance with that recovery comes a phase of increased risk […]

Eco Warriors   Those motorists who buy electric cars based on burnishing their green credentials might be interested to learn that the Chicago based Argonne National Laboratory has completed a study on how far one has to drive before the benefits of an electric car outweigh the harm done to the environment of a conventional petrol […]

Billy No Mates   GBP had been well supported over the past two weeks for two major reasons. One which continues to be true is that the economic fundamentals of the UK economy provide a palatable backdrop for GBP. The other, partially as a result of the former reality but also in anticipation of a […]

Australia   A country that has a small population for its size-26 million at present-Australia has just pared back its forecasts for both economic and population growth. By 2061, so in 40 years time, the population is forecast to grow to 38 million. The economy had been slated to grow by 3% a year, but […]