SGM-FX insights

Ten Green Bottles   Yesterday’s first round contest for the new Conservative leader duly skittled 3 of the candidates whose supporters will now add their votes among the remaining 7 next week. Meanwhile further stories about one or more of the 7 are rumoured to be splashed in the weekend press. GBP rangebound depending on rhetoric from […]

Ready, Steady, Go!     Sterling markets yesterday were moved by the unfolding Conservative Party leadership contest, parliamentary developments as well as economic data releases. However, as with most days, the price action within Sterling’s currency pairs was largely determined by the consequences of the United Kingdom’s future relationship with the European Union. Boris Johnson, […]

Currency Markets: Over and Under   That unlikely fx guru President Trump has hit unerringly on a “truth” which funnily enough that political currency tailgater the IMF has concurred with: the EURO is undervalued by according to Bloomberg 22% and the infamous Big Mac Index by 15%. Taking a look at the reasons for the […]

Currency Manipulators     It’s become a bit of a theme of late. Twitter exchanges between the leader of the United States of America and the de facto voices of China’s state-run media frequently weigh in on the manipulation debate. 7 and 7.8 are the key numbers in this game and command the attention of […]

Mexico and Markets   So the Mexican President and incidentally the market had it right and the US tariffs threatened for today have been shelved. This had been largely discounted as we wrote last week but still the Peso strengthened against the USD over the weekend.   Disappointing US employment figures on Friday have weakened […]

ECB   Mario Draghi talked tough yesterday reiterating that the ECB will not be shy of taking action in support of the EU economy in a period of weakening growth and uncertainty, citing populism and inevitably Brexit. The Euro strengthened, bond yields rose and after a day of up and down trading the net move […]

Banks: Give it a rest!   It’s European Central Bank day and as Draghi’s days in office run thin, all eyes will be on the Bank at 12:45 BST. Markets continued their onslaught against global bond yields yesterday with European, US and UK treasuries rallying in a bid for safety. The market continues to price […]

Mexican Peso and Markets Round Up   President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of Mexico not only believes but the market believes that he will pull off what most thought to be unattainable-namely no tariffs between Mexico and the USA and all by June 10 ie this coming Monday. The Mexico Peso has performed best of the […]

P.S. there’s a trade deal.     The U.S President, on official state visit to the United Kingdom, had a turbulent landing at Stansted airport yesterday. I’m sure air conditions were smooth over the north easterly runway, however, the President’s Twitter account had already brewed up a storm ahead of touch down. Fake news, vitriolic […]

Markets   The significance of a 4%+ fall in WTI oil last week is not to be underestimated given the reduction in production by Saudi Arabia. Oil markets have taken fright at the increasing concern of a global recession prompted by a US Sino trade war. Last night Andrea Nahles leader of the SDP, Angela […]

China: The Dead Spread   When I worked on the floor of the Chicago Futures Market, traders watched and traded the price differential between spot prices of pork meat and the futures price of live hogs. It was less than charmingly named the Dead Spread. Pork as we all know is a fundamental of the […]

Wide Ranges     Yesterday was a rough day in markets. Equities continued their tumble with key US indices producing price action that could suggest an imminent market correction. Amidst an intensification of the trade war masqueraded as threats of new Chinese economic weaponry, global bond yields continued to tumble. In a bid for safety, […]