SGM-FX insights

OPEC   Tomorrow OPEC is due to meet to decide on output levels from May onwards. Currently the decision is to raise daily output by 400,000 barrels from April. However the resumption of Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul and gauging the likely demand from the still recovering global economy will be uppermost in the minds […]

Biden Time   The US administration has been scrambling to back track or at least qualify comments made by the president of the United States, Joe Biden, regarding his Russian counterparty. To remind you of the words said by the US President what with the turmoil of Will Smith’s face slap turning heads, he said, […]

ECB President Lagarde   Christine Lagarde of the ECB does not see a risk of stagflation and confirms that the ECB is still seeing an EU growth rate of 2.3% in 2022 despite the negative effects of the Ukraine invasion on the EU economy plus higher energy costs plus further supply chain disruption. EUR/USD 1.0960, […]

US Mortgage Rates   Relevant to all readers is what is happening with US mortgage rates. As of now the average rate on a 30 year mortgage in the USA stands at 4.42% up by 0.26% and which represents the largest 2 week gain in that rate since 2009. The writing is writ large and […]

Spring Budget   Having developed a name for himself as the pandemic era Chancellor, Rishi Sunak had attracted a reputation of going above and beyond to provide economic support to an ailing economy – for better or for worse will remain your decision. Policies created in the face of the pandemic, not least the landmark […]

Faster is Better?   In this case, if you were wondering, these were the words from St Louis Fed President James Bullard calling for the US to raise the Fed Funds rate above 3% by the end of this year. That is much higher than the market consensus of 2.25% to 2.5% never mind the […]

Mixed picture   The Rand has had a dramatic recovery from the depths of its pandemic and risk induced sell-off running into March 2020. It may seem obvious that ZAR crosses no longer reflect the severe discount priced into them during the height of the market turmoil. However, there are many emerging market currencies who, […]

South Africa   Amazon’s Africa HQ is the anchor tenant and therefore a keystone part of the River Club construction project on the confluence of the Black and Liesbeek Rivers near Cape Town in the Western Cape Province. However construction has now been halted as it turns out that the land is sacred to the […]

UK following the Rate Hike   Following the widely expected rise in rates yesterday by the Bank of England, market watchers were sifting through the tea leaves. Ahead of the meeting the Committee was split between raising rates by 0.25% and 0.50%. Once they met however, that became a pretty much unanimous vote for 0.25%. […]

Default by Default?   I’m advised that before the modern English word default existed in its present form, it held derivations of a Latin word ‘fallere’ meaning to disappoint or deceive in the contexts of modern English (anachronism aside). Hijacked sometime later by the French, the Latin word picked up a quintessential ‘de’ and several […]

UK   With the UK jobless rate falling to a 2 year low of 3..9% and average weekly earnings rising by 4.8%, a rate rise to 0.75% tomorrow by the Bank of England looks all but certain. GBP/USD 1.3070.   Electric Bentley   Following buoyant 2021 profits of EUR 389 million, Bentley has announced that […]

China and Asian FX   Markets haven’t always known where to look over the past couple of weeks as high volatility has been witnessed across all sectors. USD funding stresses look relatively well contained thanks to swap lines at respective international central banks allowing the demand for Dollars not to spill through to foreign exchange. […]