SGM-FX insights

Markets   With the US 10 Year at 1.94% and edging ever closer to the key psychological level of 2%, the USD is stronger versus EUR at 1.1410. Christine Lagarde’s comments reflecting the view from the ECB that there is no immediate need for changes to the EU monetary policy is somewhat at odds with […]

Similar metric, different data   As we discussed last week, the non-farm payroll data released on Friday 4th Feb would be of critical importance to the value of the US Dollar. It would be the next major data point on the road ahead of the Federal Reserve Decision next month that will contribute to the Open […]

Markets   As ever at this time of rising prices and unwinding of central bank market stimulus measures, this week’s US inflation figures are going to be watched with close attention. Meanwhile the week kicks off with the 10 Year US Treasury Bond yielding 1.91%, Germany’s at +0.21% and the UK 1.41%. NYMEX WTI oil […]

Markets   Yesterday’s news heavy day has left 10 Year German Government Bond Yields up sharply at +0.14% ,so firmly back in positive yield territory; UK 10 Year Gilts at 1.36% and 10 Year US Treasury Yields at 1.79%. NYMEX oil steady at $87.77 and EUR/USD 1.1450.   USA: The Great Resignation   It is […]

Mamma Mia   As we wrote yesterday, the inflation data in the Eurozone being released throughout the week could adjust the pressure the ECB faces today when it delivers its latest monetary policy decision. Yesterday inflation data for Italy was published showing inflation at a 26-year high at 4.8% year on year. The European sovereign […]

Gallic Puff of Wind?   That is the question facing Madame Christine Lagarde of the ECB ahead of the meeting tomorrow: is French inflation annualised to December which was released yesterday of 3.3% a passing puff of wind or more of a stiff French breeze? On the back of recently released German inflation which reflects that […]

EURUSD   The market delivered relatively severe position adjustment in January that weakened the Dollar versus the Euro by around 2%. Position adjustment allowed the more defensive, long USD, positioning built up into year-end to be unwound. Data showing FX market positioning now available up to 25th January showed that aggregate dollar positioning shifted to […]

New Italian President   Yesterday Italy reinstated the present incumbent, Sergio Mattarella the 80 year old who said he had had enough and did not want to serve a second term which will take him to the age of 87. Never mind his objections, this result has been hailed a success and an outcome that […]

Markets   With WTI Oil at $88 and 10 Year US Treasury Bond yields at 1.83%, rates worldwide have moved in lockstep with 10 Year German Bunds now at -0.03% and 10 Year Gilts at 1.25%. Not surprisingly USD has hardened and GBP/USD is now at 1.3365 and EUR/USD 1.1140.   The Milky Way   […]

Eureka…   An overnight move in the US Dollar of one cent shows the market was caught at least partially off-guard by the Federal Reserve last night. Despite USD buying in the week approaching last night’s Fed decision, the market still had room to build long-USD positions as demonstrated by the latest CFTC data. The […]

Markets   A stronger USD across the board and EUR/USD 1.1290 as the market awaits the Federal Reserve meeting later today. 10 Year US Treasury Bond yielding 1.75% and 10 Year German Bunds at -0.9%. WTI oil at $83.52. GBP/USD at 1.3494.   Oil and Gas Strike   While its northern neighbour Angola is an […]

High Beta could turn High Volatility   With some US indices approaching correction territory amidst rising monetary and geopolitical uncertainty, it is unsurprising that markets are starting to question the valuation of many high-beta currencies. Taking a look, for example, at AUD and NZD currency crosses will reveal trading ranges that have exceeded four cents […]