SGM-FX insights

ECB   Faced with the choice of choking off economic recovery or increasing the risk of getting (further) behind the curve, the ECB President, Madame Lagarde has taken the less hard decision of removing economic stimulus measures. Better that than wait for the inflationary effects of Ukraine to feed through further. EUR/USD 1.0985.   Oil […]

End of the beginning?   Markets took a decisive turn yesterday unwinding much of the highly defensive positioning that has characterised many recent trading sessions. The move to adjust to a less doomsday mindset in markets was likely catalysed by the West’s latest round of sanctions. Over the weekend and into trade on Monday, speculation […]

Metals   Copper $10,070 a tonne and at a record high as are Zinc and Aluminium. However Nickel puts them in the shade in terms of a move up-having been $54,880 on Monday it reached $101,365 per tonne before retracing to $80,000: 4 times the price at the start of 2022. Nickel is currently suspended […]

Stressed   A lot of commentary at the moment will talk of disorderly or stressed financial markets leading to abnormal price movements. They’re not wrong but it often gets lost or overlooked exactly what a distressed or disorderly market is doing. You’ll notice the symptoms of a market showing signs of vulnerability and stress in […]

Oil Sanctions on Russia   With real discussions actually taking place last night led by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the prospect of the EU and USA leading a wider block on buying Russian oil looks more possible if not yet probable. WTI closed on Friday at $115.68. The Iranian nuclear non proliferation deal […]

Auto Stock Market Valuations and GBP/EUR     In pole position on the grid is Ferrari whose shares trade at an eye watering 39 times annual earnings. Conversely Mercedes only manages a seven times multiple. This is the landscape confronting VW’s Board as they deliberate about listing Porsche which makes up a substantial portion of […]

Testify       Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jay Powell testified in front of US law makers yesterday. The event came ahead of the awaited March monetary policy decision but also at a time when investors were scrambling to identify the impact on US Treasuries from the conflict in Ukraine. The Russian Invasion had […]

Oil and Shipping     Prices rose sharply once again yesterday with WTI reaching $98.28 by midday. The oil market at present is working on the assumption that an already announced increase in supply from OPEC will mitigate oil delivery disruption arising from Ukraine and Russia thereby capping further price rises in oil. Russia exports […]

I need a Dollar     Late last week markets reversed some of the defensive pricing they had pushed for in the face of the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine. The reason for the relief rally last week was that the measures taken by the West fell short of market expectations. Calls for Russia to […]

Markets     With market influencing news items coming in at speed over the weekend, it means that anything written on markets and the outlook for the week is of limited value given that events are moving fast enough to result in rapid price movements. However one thing is a certainty: expect increased volatility in […]

Market Moves   With US 10 Year treasury yields now at 1.96% and equity markets selling off sharply worldwide, not surprisingly USD stronger and EUR weaker: GBP/USD 1.3420 EUR/USD 1.1210. These moves left GBP/EUR unchanged at 1.1970 which reflects that EUR weakness. NYMEX WTI oil up at $94.60 and Gold up at $1,915. Wheat, Corn […]

Oh, and another thing…   As if Europe did not have enough on its plate already as the world watches for developments on the Ukrainian border, the European Court of Justice is also in focus. Officially named the CJEU, the European level court serves to act as the ultimate authority on European law and provides […]