SGM-FX insights

UK Sterling   The Pound or GBP looks wobbly now that it has broken the key GBP/USD 1.30 level and has traded below 1.2840. With business and consumer confidence dented and worse than expected retail sales figures, the final straw last week were the hawkish comments from Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve who warned […]

US Federal Reserve   Chairman Jérome Powell may in some peoples’ views have come to the rate hike party late but he is as of last night a fully paid up member: 50 bps on the cards for the next meeting on May 3/4 and a further 50bps in June. Stand by for (more) talk […]

Downgrade   This week is set to be the week of the growth forecast with several sets of statistics already having had profound impacts on markets. As we noted yesterday, the price of oil and the market’s interest rate expectations have been shifted by the forecasts presented by the IMF on Tuesday. Warnings on growth, […]

US Interest Rates   The IMF has spooked markets by saying that with US inflation at 8.5% the Federal Reserve has not really clarified just how much interest rates may have to rise and those rises will need to be much greater than markets are currently pricing in. GBP/USD 1.3000.   French Presidential Election   […]

Metamorphosis   As we forecasted on Thursday, the ECB’s press conference has driven EURUSD to retest recent lows with the pair even breaking through two-year lows to set fresh records during the afternoon European session. In an impressive show of metamorphosis, the President managed to change from dove to hawk, dove to hawk and back […]

Hydrogen Cars   Following our piece last week on hydrogen, one of our readers has asked a number of questions which others may also have wondered about. Here are the answers: there are currently only two models on sale; a Hyundai Lego and a Toyota Mirai. Both cost approximately GBP60k. There are also further models […]

US Dollar   The USD is more than buoyant on the back of the Federal reserve’s tough anti-inflationary talk and is at a 2 year high against other major currencies. The EUR is also suffering at the hands of a closer than expected French Presidential Election this weekend as we described on Wednesday. EUR/USD 1.0895. […]

Tighter by the Minutes   Yesterday the market got a closer look at the thoughts of the Federal Reserve, the United States’ monetary authority. This central bank, whilst not the first to highlight increasing inflationary risks and adjust the policy outlook accordingly, is now arguably the forerunner of post-pandemic policy change. Whilst still in the […]

Low Carbon Hydrogen Get ready for hearing lots about how this is the way forward for the UK’s energy strategy and how by 2050 more than 35% of our energy needs will be met by hydrogen. Listen carefully however and you might (just) hear that currently virtually none of our energy needs are derived from […]

War Crimes   We wrote recently about how the residual risk that remained priced within (FX) markets was increasingly being removed from positioning data. Despite broad doubts about the credibility of claims of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, the market scaled back demand for safe-haven FX, finding comfort in more moderate wholesale energy prices and […]

Euro   With the European Central Bank making more noise about raising interest rates (to Zero), there is a growing belief that maybe just maybe the long march from EUR/USD 1.22 to its current level of 1.1040 having flirted with 1.08 is now the beginning of a new range of 1.08 to 1.14. However with […]

South Africa: National Student Financial Aid Scheme   Rather a lot of egg on the face of the NSFAS which took financial aid to a whole new level by sending student Sibongile Mani rather more than the ZAR 1,400 or USD 95 that she was expecting. When ZAR 1,400,000 or USD 95,700 landed in her […]