SGM-FX insights

War Crimes   We wrote recently about how the residual risk that remained priced within (FX) markets was increasingly being removed from positioning data. Despite broad doubts about the credibility of claims of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, the market scaled back demand for safe-haven FX, finding comfort in more moderate wholesale energy prices and […]

Euro   With the European Central Bank making more noise about raising interest rates (to Zero), there is a growing belief that maybe just maybe the long march from EUR/USD 1.22 to its current level of 1.1040 having flirted with 1.08 is now the beginning of a new range of 1.08 to 1.14. However with […]

South Africa: National Student Financial Aid Scheme   Rather a lot of egg on the face of the NSFAS which took financial aid to a whole new level by sending student Sibongile Mani rather more than the ZAR 1,400 or USD 95 that she was expecting. When ZAR 1,400,000 or USD 95,700 landed in her […]

Just hot air?   There has been a repricing of risk across asset classes with key currency crosses also suggesting a release of defensive positioning amongst investors. In particular, we have seen a so-far sustained sell-off in a previously well-bid US Dollar. Peace negotiations seemed to be making progress on Tuesday with Russia pledging to […]

OPEC   Tomorrow OPEC is due to meet to decide on output levels from May onwards. Currently the decision is to raise daily output by 400,000 barrels from April. However the resumption of Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul and gauging the likely demand from the still recovering global economy will be uppermost in the minds […]

Biden Time   The US administration has been scrambling to back track or at least qualify comments made by the president of the United States, Joe Biden, regarding his Russian counterparty. To remind you of the words said by the US President what with the turmoil of Will Smith’s face slap turning heads, he said, […]

ECB President Lagarde   Christine Lagarde of the ECB does not see a risk of stagflation and confirms that the ECB is still seeing an EU growth rate of 2.3% in 2022 despite the negative effects of the Ukraine invasion on the EU economy plus higher energy costs plus further supply chain disruption. EUR/USD 1.0960, […]

US Mortgage Rates   Relevant to all readers is what is happening with US mortgage rates. As of now the average rate on a 30 year mortgage in the USA stands at 4.42% up by 0.26% and which represents the largest 2 week gain in that rate since 2009. The writing is writ large and […]

Spring Budget   Having developed a name for himself as the pandemic era Chancellor, Rishi Sunak had attracted a reputation of going above and beyond to provide economic support to an ailing economy – for better or for worse will remain your decision. Policies created in the face of the pandemic, not least the landmark […]

Faster is Better?   In this case, if you were wondering, these were the words from St Louis Fed President James Bullard calling for the US to raise the Fed Funds rate above 3% by the end of this year. That is much higher than the market consensus of 2.25% to 2.5% never mind the […]

Mixed picture   The Rand has had a dramatic recovery from the depths of its pandemic and risk induced sell-off running into March 2020. It may seem obvious that ZAR crosses no longer reflect the severe discount priced into them during the height of the market turmoil. However, there are many emerging market currencies who, […]

South Africa   Amazon’s Africa HQ is the anchor tenant and therefore a keystone part of the River Club construction project on the confluence of the Black and Liesbeek Rivers near Cape Town in the Western Cape Province. However construction has now been halted as it turns out that the land is sacred to the […]