The textbook definition of full employment has an unemployment rate of 4.5%, so for Fed Chair Jerome Powell with US unemployment rate at a 50 year low of 3.5%, he will inevitably both say and signal things that will spoil the party spirit when he gets to his feet at 1500hrs London time today at the Jackson Hole conference. That is when the Fed Chair will have to point out a few hard facts about the US economy to his audience: US inflation is not tamed and wage growth is above 6%. Moreover global inflation is still rising and threatens to undo the good work already accomplished in the USA. How different it all is to last years’ s speech when Jerome Powell was concerned that too much medicine would choke off the nascent post pandemic recovery. EUR/USD 0.9950.
In the latest iteration of helicopter money, President Joe Biden is floating the idea of forgiving USD 10,000 of loans for those who earn less than USD 125,000. That will take approximately 15 million aging US students out of the program. In the UK the amount outstanding at March 2022 was GBP 182 billion and that is predicted to rise to GBP 460 billion in the next 20 years. Some might (justifiably) ask the question as to whether the UK can afford to let that student debt mountain continue to grow. GBP/USD 1.1800.
Middle Aged Men in Lycra (MAMIL)
The love in with Peloton shares is looking to be over with no meaningful progress on recovering from the post pandemic hangover when bike exercisers returned to the great outdoors. The company made a lacklustre announcement yesterday when they released their results and slipped in the fact that their subscribers were aging further (really)which sent their shares down by 20%. Just a reminder those Peloton shares stood at $116 a year ago versus $10.80 last night.
It must be the last weekend in August when the news broke of an 18 foot Burmese python which had slithered through a first floor bedroom in Chandlers Ford, Hampshire, UK and surprised a couple in bed early yesterday morning. Two facts support the silly season slant: firstly the couple “recognised the snake” and secondly they repelled it with the aid of just a broom. GBP perky on all this silliness with GBP/EUR 1.1860.
Who can forget this disco hit that Donna Summer groaned and sighed her way through that was released this day in the still talked about torrid summer of 1976? Storming to Number 2 in the USA despite Donna subsequently admitting that she was unsure of the lyrics which necessitated the sighs and groans and quite a bit of improvisation. It has to be said that there really wasn’t a whole lot for Donna to learn:
I love to love you, baby
I love to love you, baby
I love to love you, baby
I love to love you, baby
I love to love you, baby
I love to love you, baby
When you’re laying so close to me
There’s no place I’d rather you be than with me, me, uh
I love to love you, baby
I love to love you, baby
I love to love you, baby
Do it to me again and again
You put me in such an awful spin, in a spin, in, uh
Oh, love to love you, baby
Oh, love to love you, baby
Oh, love to love you, baby
Ah, love to love you, baby
I love to love you, baby
I love to love you, baby
Lay your head down real close to me
Soothe my mind and set me free, set me free, uh
I love to love you, baby
I love to love you, baby
Alright, alright
Alright
Oh
Whoa
Have a Great Weekend!
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – POTUS in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Humphrey Percy
Wed 14 May 2025
POTUS in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia As one of POTUS’ travelling companions on this week’s visit, Larry Fink of Blackrock represents everything that a US President might want to burnish his credentials in the desert kingdom: head of the largest asset manager on the planet, hugely influential and totally credible. Just a shame that he […]
Daily Brief – UK Borrowing
Humphrey Percy
Wed 21 May 2025
UK Borrowing Another one for the pub quiz in case it comes up: UK government borrowing stands at £2.8 trillion or £2800 billion. While you digest that number over the chicken in the basket if indeed you are already in the pub, it will have increased by the time you get to the end of this […]
Daily Brief – The Art of the Deal
Humphrey Percy
Mon 19 May 2025
The Art of the Deal Today the UK Prime Minister will be announcing the fruits of his weekend labours after meeting the EU not as an accredited delegate but in a side session on the fringes of the EU Summit in Albania. What was on the table? Youth mobility, which is pol speak for 24-30 […]
