SGM-FX insights

Starbucks   With more than 25,000 outlets worldwide in more than 70 countries, Starbucks has by any stretch of the imagination a thriving business. Have you noticed that when you pay for your coffee it is always a little bit more than the quoted tariff ? No neither had I until yesterday when I was […]

Emerging Markets   Take one glance at intraday currency moves and you’ll see that volatility is up in a noticeable and pervasive way. There are many expressions of risk in the foreign exchange market at present: the persistent and increasing strength of the US Dollar is symptomatic not just of the increasingly hawkish repricing of […]

Burger King   As previously reported Burger King is in hot water with advertising standards officers in the USA having overstated the size of its Whopper burger product by up to 30% in advertisements. Undaunted by that spot of bother, Burger King has announced that it is opening 200 new outlets in the UK. Applying […]

UK Rates and Sterling   UK rate expectations are likely driving much of Sterling’s spot and forward pricing. Near-term UK rates are expressing at least a high degree of correlation if not causation with GBP as the market questions what next week’s Bank of England (BoE) decision and the rest of the year will bring […]

UK Sterling   The Pound or GBP looks wobbly now that it has broken the key GBP/USD 1.30 level and has traded below 1.2840. With business and consumer confidence dented and worse than expected retail sales figures, the final straw last week were the hawkish comments from Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve who warned […]

US Federal Reserve   Chairman Jérome Powell may in some peoples’ views have come to the rate hike party late but he is as of last night a fully paid up member: 50 bps on the cards for the next meeting on May 3/4 and a further 50bps in June. Stand by for (more) talk […]

Downgrade   This week is set to be the week of the growth forecast with several sets of statistics already having had profound impacts on markets. As we noted yesterday, the price of oil and the market’s interest rate expectations have been shifted by the forecasts presented by the IMF on Tuesday. Warnings on growth, […]

US Interest Rates   The IMF has spooked markets by saying that with US inflation at 8.5% the Federal Reserve has not really clarified just how much interest rates may have to rise and those rises will need to be much greater than markets are currently pricing in. GBP/USD 1.3000.   French Presidential Election   […]

Metamorphosis   As we forecasted on Thursday, the ECB’s press conference has driven EURUSD to retest recent lows with the pair even breaking through two-year lows to set fresh records during the afternoon European session. In an impressive show of metamorphosis, the President managed to change from dove to hawk, dove to hawk and back […]

Hydrogen Cars   Following our piece last week on hydrogen, one of our readers has asked a number of questions which others may also have wondered about. Here are the answers: there are currently only two models on sale; a Hyundai Lego and a Toyota Mirai. Both cost approximately GBP60k. There are also further models […]

US Dollar   The USD is more than buoyant on the back of the Federal reserve’s tough anti-inflationary talk and is at a 2 year high against other major currencies. The EUR is also suffering at the hands of a closer than expected French Presidential Election this weekend as we described on Wednesday. EUR/USD 1.0895. […]

Tighter by the Minutes   Yesterday the market got a closer look at the thoughts of the Federal Reserve, the United States’ monetary authority. This central bank, whilst not the first to highlight increasing inflationary risks and adjust the policy outlook accordingly, is now arguably the forerunner of post-pandemic policy change. Whilst still in the […]