SGM-FX insights

Covid-22   Happy New Year to you all and very best wishes from all at SGM-FX for the year ahead. As liquidity and volume return to the markets following the festive period the true impact of the events and themes presented in the real economy last year should begin to play out. For example, the […]

Markets Round Up   On this the last day of the year, here is a quick look at the key market indicators that are signposting the way into 2022:   10 Year US Treasury yields 1.50% Oil-WTI-$76.02 on hopes that the virus will not hospitalise the numbers feared Gold-$1817 FTSE at 7403-80 points below the […]

Fragility   As the year draws to a close, the anniversary of Biden’s time in office also draws ever closer. Partisan politics will likely define your view on the relative success/failure of this term. In fact, there is significant momentum behind voices against incumbent leaders/parties on both sides of the Atlantic, here in the UK […]

Markets   Unsurprisingly there is little to report from over the holiday period, but here is a round up of the key developments in bullet point form for those of you who are interested in what is happening in the world outside the Christmas bubble:   Oil: WTI trading at $73.76 a one month high […]

More bang for Your Baht   Some Thai boxers have taken this adage literally and attempted to smuggle USD 30 million of crystal meth also known as ice from Bangkok to Australia hidden inside Thai made boxing punch bags. While crystal meth is in demand in Australia, (11 tons annual consumption if you are interested) […]

Opportunity and Caution   As well-versed readers, you will all be familiar with the status of the US Dollar as a safehaven. The US Dollar’s appreciation during times of global and even domestic US turmoil are familiar themes and contribute to the framework of understanding FX flows and exchange rate movements. However, at the moment, […]

USD/TRL   A combination of the Turkish government announcing measures to channel domestic buyers back into TRL rather than USD, illiquid markets and confirmation that the lower interest rate policy remains intact meant that seatbelts were mandatory for participants in the Turkish Lira market yesterday which saw the USD/TRL rate start the day at 13.50, […]

Confused valuations   I haven’t forgotten about Covid-19, how could I? But it has come in second place with respect to currency valuations in recent weeks. At least ahead of last week’s series of key central bank policy announcements, the key determinant in currency movements was monetary policy. What is surprising in today’s market is […]

Iran   The life of the Iranian drug smuggler can be short, brutish and complicated. Last week off the coast of Dubai when faced with interception by a US patrol boat, 5 Iranians set fire to their stash on board their vessel which unfortunately was a traditional sailing boat made of wood. Things did not […]

Turkey   Another Thursday and another 100 basis point rate cut by the Turkish Central Bank yet again flying in the face of the facts as well as economic rectitude. And the result? a further 5% cut in the value of the Lira. Inflation at 21% and predicted to reach 30% next year which is […]

Thanks, but no thanks!   Moving into last night’s Federal Reserve decision, markets were expecting to see rates unchanged but were closely looking at where the board thought interest rates would be in the year(s) to come. Market expectations had rather neatly convened around 2 whole rate hikes in 2022 with similar expectations for 2023. […]

UK Employment   With the good news that employment grew at the fastest rate since 2014 with 257,000 new job joiners on the UK’s payrolls, that presents the Bank of England with a dilemma. Having stated that they wanted to see the end of furlough not damaging the labour market before adjusting interest rates and […]