SGM-FX insights

In the long run, we’re all dead   The quotation above is from legendary British economist John Maynard Keynes. These thoughts were offered in relation to the phenomena of fixed exchange rates but resonate strongly when considering yesterday’s market movements. US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, announced yesterday that the Trump administration would delay sanctions on […]

GBP   We have written about the various scenarios for GBP over the next three months several times in the past weeks and it is fair to say that the market continued at least until this week to ascribe a 10% chance of a NoDeal Brexit. That has now changed with 30% ie 3 times […]

Sevennnnn!   Yesterday the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Chinese Renminbi broke through the 7.0 threshold for the first time since 2008. An initial glance at market action yesterday: Pound down, global equities some 2% off their opening price and defensive havens rallying might seem like overkill as a reaction to the […]

GBP and What is the Outlook over the next 3 months?   A number of our clients both private and corporate are asking us what the outlook for GBP is with the differing probabilities of outcomes on Brexit: No Deal is given a probability of 30%, a Deal by 31 October 15%, a delay to the […]

Waiting Game:     Voting has closed in South Africa’s national and provincial election, but it will take time to understand how the electorate expressed their will at the 22,924 polling stations across the nation. Results are scheduled to be released by May 11th and any exit or advanced polls are typically poor reflections of […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   There were high hopes for Australian Consumer Price Index inflation statistics released in the early hours of yesterday morning. The data released bucked the trend emanating from Australia this month. Showing under-expectation inflation, year-on-year inflation within the Australian economy fell short of the previous release. With monetary policy […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   The triumph of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, over the weekend has driven the Japanese stock market skyward and the exchange rate downward. Whilst the certainty of a freshly mandated national government usually affords a domestic currency with value, the specific brand […]

Safe Haven Currencies are an imperative, yet complicated, business. Rising in value and price in the face of Geopolitical and general uncertainty and risk, their trend often defies not only other asset trends but also logic. In this article, we analyse known havens and the possible causes for their existence.    US Dollar   The […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   Whilst the headline above may be many people’s aggregate impression of financial markets and politicians regardless of the short-term conditions, it is certainly the general impression of this week. With only minor data released within the UK on Tuesday and significant US data waiting until Friday, once again, […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   This afternoon, the culmination of the Catalonian independence vote may arrive. We analyse the implications within currency markets, predominantly the Euro. In doing so, we offer you an insight into the likely performance of the Euro when it is potentially confronted by a declaration for Catalonian secession later […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   The week to date has seen a reversal of some incumbent forex market trends. Whereas the tripartite combination of Dollar weakness, Sterling (post-Brexit relative) strength and Euro strength seemed entrenched a few weeks ago, new dynamics are prevailing. Particularly, the Dollar has regained considerable value against the Euro […]

Discussion and Analysis by Grace Gliksten:   In the UK overnight trading session, a further blow to the Australian Dollar was dealt by the retail market, further highlighting the importance of the decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA, to hold interest rates at 1.50 percent. Philip Lowe, governor of the RBA, claimed the […]