SGM-FX insights

Fragility   As the year draws to a close, the anniversary of Biden’s time in office also draws ever closer. Partisan politics will likely define your view on the relative success/failure of this term. In fact, there is significant momentum behind voices against incumbent leaders/parties on both sides of the Atlantic, here in the UK […]

Markets   Unsurprisingly there is little to report from over the holiday period, but here is a round up of the key developments in bullet point form for those of you who are interested in what is happening in the world outside the Christmas bubble:   Oil: WTI trading at $73.76 a one month high […]

More bang for Your Baht   Some Thai boxers have taken this adage literally and attempted to smuggle USD 30 million of crystal meth also known as ice from Bangkok to Australia hidden inside Thai made boxing punch bags. While crystal meth is in demand in Australia, (11 tons annual consumption if you are interested) […]

Opportunity and Caution   As well-versed readers, you will all be familiar with the status of the US Dollar as a safehaven. The US Dollar’s appreciation during times of global and even domestic US turmoil are familiar themes and contribute to the framework of understanding FX flows and exchange rate movements. However, at the moment, […]

USD/TRL   A combination of the Turkish government announcing measures to channel domestic buyers back into TRL rather than USD, illiquid markets and confirmation that the lower interest rate policy remains intact meant that seatbelts were mandatory for participants in the Turkish Lira market yesterday which saw the USD/TRL rate start the day at 13.50, […]

Confused valuations   I haven’t forgotten about Covid-19, how could I? But it has come in second place with respect to currency valuations in recent weeks. At least ahead of last week’s series of key central bank policy announcements, the key determinant in currency movements was monetary policy. What is surprising in today’s market is […]

Turkey   Another Thursday and another 100 basis point rate cut by the Turkish Central Bank yet again flying in the face of the facts as well as economic rectitude. And the result? a further 5% cut in the value of the Lira. Inflation at 21% and predicted to reach 30% next year which is […]

Thanks, but no thanks!   Moving into last night’s Federal Reserve decision, markets were expecting to see rates unchanged but were closely looking at where the board thought interest rates would be in the year(s) to come. Market expectations had rather neatly convened around 2 whole rate hikes in 2022 with similar expectations for 2023. […]

US Inflation   At 6.8% in the year to November, US inflation is as high as it has ever been for almost 40 years. That should be enough of a warning for the Bank of England as those with longer memories will know that what happens in the USA subsequently reaches the UK. Positively that roll […]

UK   With all eyes on Covid stats, the worst ever outbreak of avian flu in the UK has gone largely unreported. Thousands of farming birds have been culled across the country and an Avian Influenza Prevention Zone was declared on November 3 thereby stretching supplies of turkeys and other Christmas poultry still further. 40 […]

Ariel   Or the Atmospheric Remote-Sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey to give it its full name is a truly space age project led scientifically by the UK working with the European Space Agency and built by Airbus which involves launching a telescope in 2029 which will take up position 1.5 million kms from Earth and will […]

UAE   Hopefully a positive sign with Sheikh Tahnoon Al Nahyan, brother of the de facto ruler of the UAE visiting this week Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Iran Supreme Security Council to discuss improved bilateral relations. This follows exploratory talks in 2019 which did not progress, so hopefully this week’s meetings augur well for […]