SGM-FX insights

Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)   This week will see the UK applying to join this trading bloc that includes Canada, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Malaysia, Chile, Japan, Peru, Singapore and Viet Nam. Negotiations will start later in 2021. The attraction is that this bloc aims to remove almost all trade […]

Oil   Oil prices are a little firmer at present with WTI at $52.10 on a weaker USD and capped on concerns that the time to roll out vaccinations will weigh on global economic performance. However what has changed radically in the past year is the amount of oil that was being stored in tankers […]

Prospects   The stories this week about day traders on Reddit out muscling Wall Street in specific equities are fascinating. For now at least, this group of Robin Hood traders hold little chance of upsetting foreign exchange valuations directly given that it is the most liquid market on the planet. Blamed in part for the […]

Luxury Goods   Good cheer for luxury brands with the release of Louis Vuitton results yesterday showing an increase of 18% in leather goods and fashion sales in Q4 2020. Tight cost control and some price increases have not blunted business which continues on line and demonstrates that if anyone wants to bet on this […]

Con-te Partiro   Towards the end of yesterday’s European close there was a correction in risk appetite that saw the US Dollar appreciate against the Euro and commodity currencies. The sharp move that was precipitated by little fundamental adjustments or news headlines highlights the still fragile sentiment in global markets, particularly within the Eurozone. As […]

Global Growth   This weekend has seen the first cautioning by both the Federal Reserve and the IMF that the global economy may not snap back in 2021 in the anticipated V shape and may be more of an elongated U due to the time that it will take to rollout the Covid vaccine. Consequently […]

Euro   Following yesterday’s ECB meeting confirming that European ultra easy monetary conditions will be maintained and with confirmation that there will be further stimulus measures to counteract the economic effects of Covid when necessary, the market was reassured and the EUR remained firm at USD 1.2150.   U.S. Employment   At a high level, […]

Inauguration   Passed down from Latin, to French and an English sounding ‘al’ stuck on some time in the late 17th century, inaugural is a word that had carried a similar meaning for a long time. The Roman and Greek picture of an inauguration involved an augur (appropriately named) watching out for natural signs like […]

UK   UK Consumer Price Index up by 0.6% v expected 0.5%. GBP unmoved by that but inflation watchers monitoring closer for any signs of price moves outstripping forecasts.   U.S.Treasury Secretary Nominee: Janet Yellen   Yesterday’s address by Janet Yellen to the Senate Finance Committee was closely watched by markets yesterday and she did […]

Two hands on the wheel   Either the result of a calendar mixup or just a series of unavoidable events, the week ahead is packed with risks that will dominate foreign exchange flows. President elect Joe Biden’s inauguration will take place in Washington on Wednesday. This week members of the European Council, the EU’s executive […]

US Federal Reserve   Next meeting for the Board of the Fed is on 26/27 January and following comments from members including the Boston Fed President, there is little expectation of any tightening in rates nor the reduction or removal of the bond buying program designed to inject stimulus into the US economy. Despite both […]

US Dollar   Still on an upward path at 1.2130 versus EUR, USD is strong on the effects of the expected $1.5 trillion Biden stimulus package. The yield on the US 10 year Treasury Bond has increased by 0.20% in the past month and now stands at 1.17%. US Equity markets on their highs.   […]