SGM-FX insights

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   PART ONE: Inflation data and Exchange Rates   This morning saw the monthly release of salient macroeconomic data related to prices and inflation. Each major GBP-based currency pair has experienced a rally following the release, leading to an explicit appreciation of the Pound Sterling. This article analyses the […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   Unexpected events that are endogenous to currency systems and the macroeconomy are difficult to forecast accurately. However, their manifestation generates considerable risk and volatility; phenomena to either seek or eschew dependent upon individual intentions and approaches to risk.   This article covers recent developments within Uzbekistan’s Som and […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   This week will challenge the strength of the Great British Pound and thereby generate considerable upside and downside risks. However, the materialisation of UK performance may be subsumed within broader, global, currency trends.   Saying a prayer this weekend was perhaps the most useful form of global speculation. […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter: Natural uncertainty amongst geopolitical insecurity: Part Two. Whilst the media has abounded with talk of a risk off environment precipitated by numerous central bank announcements and geopolitical threats, natural disasters are embedding themselves upon our radar. Our thoughts and concerns truly rest with those affected, either directly or indirectly. […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter   Whilst the media has abounded with talk of a risk off environment precipitated by numerous central bank announcements and geopolitical threats, natural disasters are embedding themselves upon our radar. Our thoughts and concerns truly rest with those affected, either directly or indirectly. This article addresses the financial legacy […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), offered a cautious and Dovish press conference following today’s monetary policy decision. This decision saw all three headline monetary rates remain constant, whilst net asset purchases were maintained at €60bn. This article analyses the market’s reaction to this move […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   Despite defying the dominant market opinion, and with inflation trailing well below a 2% target, the Bank of Canada raised their interest rate target by 25 basis points. This article analyses this move in the context of the global political economy and the viewpoint of the Bank of […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter: Canadian interest rate policy changed following the Bank’s last policy decision in July. A movement of 25 basis points to 0.75% continued to encourage the trend of a strengthening of the Canadian Dollar vis-à-vis most international currencies. However, on the back of strong GDP results at the end of […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   A recession in the South African economy has ended. This has been signalled by strong and positive annualised second quarter real GDP growth statistics. The growth performance of the South African economy surpassed expectations, resulting in an appreciation of the Rand, despite expectations already correctly forecasting the end […]

Analysis and Discussion by Charles Porter:   Two statistics have been released by the Swiss Federal Statistics Office this morning. Meanwhile the Franc weakened. In order to analyse this effect, we consider the Swiss Franc (CHF) against key international currencies and its safe-haven partner, the Japanese Yen.   The Swiss Franc has received heightened attention in […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   “ Conditions in the global economy are continuing to improve”, although, the degree to which the domestic Australian economy is feeling any of this improvement is less certain.   A reserved statement introducing the Monetary Policy Decision was released by Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter: Friday Afternoon saw dramatic changes in the value of major international currency pairs. By examining the Sterling-Dollar, Sterling-Euro, and Euro-Dollar rate, the magnitude of two major events is unveiled: firstly, US payroll and unemployment data and, secondly, ECB indecision concerns.   Scheduled for a BST 1:30pm release, payroll and […]