SGM-FX insights

Get Used To It   That was what Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio advised his customers when asked about how they should deal with higher food prices. As regular readers will know, commodity basics such as corn, coffee, palm oil, sugar and soya beans have all been rising in price and are at a 10 […]

Common Prosperity   The Communist Party’s recently announced commitment to equalising wealth and dividing it more evenly within China now further clarifies the recent actions taken against some very high profile and wealthy business leaders. It also has implications for foreign investors in China as it is apparent, if it was not already, that China […]

A Dangerous Man?   That is how Elizabeth Warren described Jay Powell when he was testifying last week. Powell was estimated to have a 90% chance of being re-nominated as Chair of the Federal Reserve before last week but that has now fallen to 60% as Elizabeth Warren has said she will oppose it. The […]

UK House Prices   The 5 fastest rising areas in the UK property market are rural and coastal and are: Inverclyde, Conwy, Vale of Glamorgan, Hastings and North Devon which have averaged 24% in the past year. At the other end of the scale the fallers are all in London and are Lewisham, Westminster, Newham, […]

Bailey’s Bombshell   As the currency with one of (if not the) most sensitive risk profiles in the G10 currency space, the fall in GBP in recent sessions has been particularly severe. The shift in sentiment is highly visible against a rising US Dollar, with the Pound having suffered as markets are increasingly concerned about […]

US Dollar   Big move yesterday as the Dollar index rose to 93.67 its highest for a month on the back of rising US Treasury Bond Yields which saw the 10 Year go to 1.5270%. Breaching that 1.50% level is a psychological level that jolted currency markets and GBP had a range of 2 cents […]

Germany   As Germany goes to the polls, the realisation among voters is that whatever the outcome, the real contest will be settled as the parties divvy up their respective power bases to form the next ruling coalition-a process that is expected to take up to 3 weeks and has arithmetically 15 different permutations if […]

US Employment   Lots of statistics but broadly the direction is clear: the unemployment numbers in the US are declining despite some higher than expected figures in California. At the end of July there were a record 10.9 million job vacancies and the Federal Reserve is projecting 4.8% unemployment at year end. EUR/USD at 1.1720. […]

EU Inflation   The ECB’s belief is that from current 3% EU inflation will rise to 3.5% by November and then drop sharply back to 2% where it will stay for “years to come.” What can go wrong? Commodity prices continue their rise, supply chain bottlenecks squeeze goods’ prices and labour shortages continue. Having undershot […]

UK Christmas cancelled due to soaring gas prices?   Those who find it hard to join the price of gas to a potential Christmas cancellation need to know that gas price rises have resulted in at least 2 large fertiliser companies closing. Those companies produce Co2 as a by product precipitating a shortage of Co2. […]

London’s Tube Map   For the first time this century the tube map has been redrawn with the long awaited Northern Line extension which puts new stations Battersea and Nine Elms on the network as of 0530am on Monday. In case you are confused having over enjoyed yourselves last night and spotted the redrawn tube […]

US Core Consumer Price Index   Those like Federal Reserve Chair Powell who doubt the risk of inflation will be heartened by yesterday’s release which showed a slowing of a rise in core CPI at only 0.1% in August after a 0.3% rise in July. Inflation is not quite over as a risk however given […]