SGM-FX insights

Common Prosperity   The Communist Party’s recently announced commitment to equalising wealth and dividing it more evenly within China now further clarifies the recent actions taken against some very high profile and wealthy business leaders. It also has implications for foreign investors in China as it is apparent, if it was not already, that China […]

Whipsaw   If you were allowed to use your phone at the petrol pumps and happened to be reading this mail then the topic of this briefing, the cost of fuel, might hit home particularly hard. Although, let’s face it, with the queues, horns and army operated delivery tanker queuing up behind you, you might […]

US Trade Deficit   The August surge of 4.2% took the deficit to $73.3 billion last month. This is a sure sign of economic growth slowing from an annualised rate of 6.7% in Q2 which is further confirmed by the Atlanta Federal reserve forecasting economic growth of just 2.3% for Q3. The market is remarkably […]

Another Round?   Sterling has staged a considerable recovery since trading at levels that rivalled December 2020 (pre-Brexit agreement; post-lockdown reversal induced) lows. There was concern within the market that a break of key technical levels in GBPUSD as well as in other risk-sensitive Sterling crosses, could spur further losses down towards the low 1.30s […]

A Dangerous Man?   That is how Elizabeth Warren described Jay Powell when he was testifying last week. Powell was estimated to have a 90% chance of being re-nominated as Chair of the Federal Reserve before last week but that has now fallen to 60% as Elizabeth Warren has said she will oppose it. The […]

UK House Prices   The 5 fastest rising areas in the UK property market are rural and coastal and are: Inverclyde, Conwy, Vale of Glamorgan, Hastings and North Devon which have averaged 24% in the past year. At the other end of the scale the fallers are all in London and are Lewisham, Westminster, Newham, […]

Bailey’s Bombshell   As the currency with one of (if not the) most sensitive risk profiles in the G10 currency space, the fall in GBP in recent sessions has been particularly severe. The shift in sentiment is highly visible against a rising US Dollar, with the Pound having suffered as markets are increasingly concerned about […]

US Dollar   Big move yesterday as the Dollar index rose to 93.67 its highest for a month on the back of rising US Treasury Bond Yields which saw the 10 Year go to 1.5270%. Breaching that 1.50% level is a psychological level that jolted currency markets and GBP had a range of 2 cents […]

Cashing in or checking out?   Controversy has been building within the Federal Reserve in recent weeks. Before a recent announcement the private financial circumstances and actions of several individual policy makers brought into question the integrity and independence of the whole monetary institution. Due to the nature of the role as a rate setter […]

Germany   As Germany goes to the polls, the realisation among voters is that whatever the outcome, the real contest will be settled as the parties divvy up their respective power bases to form the next ruling coalition-a process that is expected to take up to 3 weeks and has arithmetically 15 different permutations if […]

US Employment   Lots of statistics but broadly the direction is clear: the unemployment numbers in the US are declining despite some higher than expected figures in California. At the end of July there were a record 10.9 million job vacancies and the Federal Reserve is projecting 4.8% unemployment at year end. EUR/USD at 1.1720. […]

Three Down, three to go   After a volatile night in markets, the dust has settled to leave major currency pairs trading roughly in line with their closing value at the European close yesterday. The Federal Reserve’s decision last night saw trading ranges just shy of 1 cent prevail within major USD crosses. The market […]