SGM-FX insights

Group of 20     How many sets of eyes and ears do you really need in order to react quickly to the set of discussions taking place in Osaka, Japan this Friday? A minimum for 10 pairs, assuming each leader has a conversation with at least one other person and doesn’t have a solitary […]

Istanbul Express(ion) by its citizens   Over the weekend the citizens of Istanbul spoke and the result was a decisive defeat for President Erdogan’s policies with 54% of the vote for the Mayor of Istanbul going to Ekrem Imamoglu. Why is this significant? First because the expected winner Erdogan man Binali Yildirim only won 45%. […]

Good Vibrations   With Beach Boy Brian Wilson turning 77 yesterday, there are a number of lessons to be drawn including the one that says that some rock stars do miraculously live long(er) despite their lifestyle. In 1942 when Brian was born, the USA was drawn into WW2 following Pearl Harbour. At that time and […]

Tango Time     Alright it’s not September yet, Strictly’s not back on TV and our tango won’t star one sequin clad pro and an overweight celebrity Ed Balls with far too much enthusiasm to be healthy (sorry Ed). But the composition of the showdown between the two potential next leaders of the Conservative Party […]

Sintra, Portugal and the ECB Governor   Mario Draghi ECB Governor despite the reported highest rate of wage growth reported earlier in the week saw weak inflation and growth as key challenges in his speech at Sintra yesterday. He also said that further rate cuts remain an option that the ECB may choose. So it […]

Mario, Mark and Jay     The Pound was the biggest loser yesterday, sliding virtually unimpeded through numerous resistance levels. Brexit has been a challenge to Sterling’s value to say the least, however, the implications within its biggest crosses is alarming. Despite enjoying an ailing US Dollar in the more immediate aftermath of Brexit, a […]

China and the Renminbi Yuan   With USD1 buying CNY 6.9218 on Friday, the trader talk was when, not if, the symbolic level of 7 would be breached with expectations that the G20 at the end of this month would be that time. The Chinese are talking down any significance of this level which to […]

Ten Green Bottles   Yesterday’s first round contest for the new Conservative leader duly skittled 3 of the candidates whose supporters will now add their votes among the remaining 7 next week. Meanwhile further stories about one or more of the 7 are rumoured to be splashed in the weekend press. GBP rangebound depending on rhetoric from […]

Ready, Steady, Go!     Sterling markets yesterday were moved by the unfolding Conservative Party leadership contest, parliamentary developments as well as economic data releases. However, as with most days, the price action within Sterling’s currency pairs was largely determined by the consequences of the United Kingdom’s future relationship with the European Union. Boris Johnson, […]

Currency Markets: Over and Under   That unlikely fx guru President Trump has hit unerringly on a “truth” which funnily enough that political currency tailgater the IMF has concurred with: the EURO is undervalued by according to Bloomberg 22% and the infamous Big Mac Index by 15%. Taking a look at the reasons for the […]

Currency Manipulators     It’s become a bit of a theme of late. Twitter exchanges between the leader of the United States of America and the de facto voices of China’s state-run media frequently weigh in on the manipulation debate. 7 and 7.8 are the key numbers in this game and command the attention of […]

Mexico and Markets   So the Mexican President and incidentally the market had it right and the US tariffs threatened for today have been shelved. This had been largely discounted as we wrote last week but still the Peso strengthened against the USD over the weekend.   Disappointing US employment figures on Friday have weakened […]