SGM-FX insights

Cheers to that?   Earlier in the week we highlighted the financial market’s positive yet muted reaction to the UK budget announcements made over the weekend. The lack of decisive reaction despite the salience of fiscal policy to exchange rates was put down to the risk of yesterday’s budget announcement striking a different tone to […]

GBP   Versus the low yielding currencies such as the EUR and Yen, GBP is at a 20 month high which is offering value to GBP sellers versus those currencies. Whether GBP goes higher from here is less certain as there is a suggestion that there is a lack of oxygen at these levels with […]

Chancellor’s Treat   There have been mixed reactions to Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s latest spending plans. Those reactions, of course, have been driven by each individual’s own stakes and thus rewards from the spending decisions made. The Chancellor even received condemnation from the Speaker of the House of Commons for swerving parliamentary procedure and declaring most […]

Saudi Arabia   Yesterday the Crown Prince kicked off the high stakes game of poker to establish Green credentials ahead of COP26 by pledging that Saudi Arabia will be carbon neutral by 2060. While there was a rush to welcome this news by COP26 luminaries, saner voices were heard to express doubt about KSA’s delivering […]

Batteries   Admittedly not a product that SGM-FX would normally cover, but one that is very much moving to the centre of our market radar screen. Thanks to a series of key patents, China dominates the production of iron based batteries making 95% of the world’s Lithium Iron Phosphate(LFP) batteries. Those patents expire soon and […]

The Paradox of Intervention   The US Dollar is on the rise. Of the 22 EURUSD trading sessions in September, 15 saw the US Dollar gain ground on the Euro. Overall, last month, the aggregate price move was approximately 2% in the favour of the greenback versus the Euro. In itself, the changing valuation of […]

Russian Railways   As a result of the snarl ups in Chinese ports that have already been well reported, Chinese exporters are turning their attention to rail transit for their goods. Normally time and cost would preclude such a move, but both have gone out of the window with shipping containers in the wrong places, […]

Ready, set, go!   You may have heard recently about the German traffic light. It’s not a strangely themed party, it’s not a strawberry, mango and pistachio ice cream cone, nor is it even an automotive signal. Rather, it represents one of the possible coalition outcomes following the election in Germany last month. The red […]

UK Inflation   At over 4%, the warning lights have been flashing for a few weeks now. Bank of England  Governor Andrew Bailey has been saying that such a level of inflation in the UK is temporary. Respected Panmure Gordon analyst, Simon French wrote the same over the weekend. However, it looks likely that following […]

US Supply Chain   As highlighted last week, 40% of all US imports go through the Port of Los Angeles in California. More pictures of the freight ships queuing. It emerges somewhat surprisingly that it is only now that the port is contemplating opening at night and over the weekends! It seems extraordinary in today’s […]

Sticky CNY   Uncertainty and risk continue to pervade and detract investors from Chinese stocks. In particular, investors continue to question whether the crisis within Chinese real-estate stocks will be contained within the sector or spread through the financial sector, deteriorating financing and economic conditions nationwide. Whilst stocks in the one of the world’s most […]

Get Used To It   That was what Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio advised his customers when asked about how they should deal with higher food prices. As regular readers will know, commodity basics such as corn, coffee, palm oil, sugar and soya beans have all been rising in price and are at a 10 […]