SGM-FX insights

Swiss Private Banks: Serving their Clients   As everyone knows, the feelgood factor of leaving surplus cash with a Swiss Private Bank is worth something. Well, recently Credit Suisse quantified that something by charging their well heeled clients with EUR 1 million a 0.4% fee. Now UBS has raised the game by charging their clients […]

Sevennnnn!   Yesterday the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Chinese Renminbi broke through the 7.0 threshold for the first time since 2008. An initial glance at market action yesterday: Pound down, global equities some 2% off their opening price and defensive havens rallying might seem like overkill as a reaction to the […]

GBP and What is the Outlook over the next 3 months?   A number of our clients both private and corporate are asking us what the outlook for GBP is with the differing probabilities of outcomes on Brexit: No Deal is given a probability of 30%, a Deal by 31 October 15%, a delay to the […]

Turkey and Trump(TNT-hopefully not)   With Turkey taking delivery of the first batch of Russian S400 missile systems last week, it was inevitable that POTUS would retaliate by imposing sanctions this week. It is unclear what those may include and there is a range of possibilities from the withholding of the F35 jetfighter manufactured by […]

Gold versus Silver   With gold having run up to over $1400 an ounce, market sages are dusting off their files and looking at the Gold to Silver ratio. At present that stands at 92.4 which means that gold is 92.4 times as expensive as silver. The thinking goes that rather than buy gold which […]

Fed Up   Powell’s on board – we think – following his testimony to the House Finance Committee yesterday afternoon. The chairman of the Federal Reserve, the United States’ monetary policy and interest rate setting authority, spoke to politicians yesterday offering a dovish testimony that saw the value of the US Dollar fall sharply. The […]

Jeremy Corbyn-the Harry Houdini of UK politics(maybe)   After weeks of prevarication  despite intense pressure from his MPs, the Leader of HM’s opposition has said that there should be a further Referendum on the EU and at that time, Labour will campaign for the UK to remain in the EU. Brilliant! There is either zero […]

Swing Low   The carry trade is a favourite in foreign exchange (or indeed any) investment: use something cheap to buy something rewarding that you hope in turn is still worth something at the time you decide to cash your chips in. For example, with the Rand yielding 6.75% due to its underlying interest rate […]

Greece   Exit polls are reflecting what was widely expected: a widespread rejection of Syriza and incumbent PM Tsipras. The New Democracy Party led by Kyriakos Mitsokakis has a clear lead with 38% of the vote over Syriza with approx 28%. This will further strengthen Greece’s standing and build on its recent acceptance by the […]

Gold and the US Yield Curve   With gold over $1420 there is still more buying this week due to the fact that 3 month US Treasury Bill Yields are higher than the 10 year US Treasury Bond Yield. This bellwether indicator is closely followed because each time this has happened in the past 50 […]

La-En-Garde!     The bond market was on guard yesterday, with money flooding into fixed income assets in anticipation of an even longer than foreseen period of accommodative monetary policy. Record yields were produced once again yesterday both within Europe and across the Atlantic. The reason? Among the leading causes of yesterday’s bond rally is […]

Italy and its Budget: a contradiction in terms   As described here two weeks ago, Italy is pushing hard against tough budgetary restraints from the EU. The gap is €40 Billion. Italy’s Deputy PM is playing hardball and has reminded the EU just how much Italy owes to the rest of the EU with the […]