SGM-FX insights

Ukraine   One of our readers has written asking what the effect on the markets would be if those 100,000 Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border were to be ordered across it. As of now, markets are surprisingly sanguine about Russia invading Ukraine and are treating it more akin to a border dispute than […]

France   News of the relaxation of travel restrictions for UK travellers to France set pulses and share prices racing in the travel sector at lunchtime yesterday. Inghams and Crystal both reported sharp increases in web traffic enquiry and bookings on their sites reflecting British skiers rushing to secure their places for le great downhill […]

The Ultimate Cop Out?   You’ve probably seen it a number of times in financial commentaries (but not of course, in our communications!) usage of the phrase: ‘It’s already priced in’. This can unequivocally be labelled as the ultimate cop out for misdiagnosing or simulating the outcome of an event upon a financial product. For […]

Derek Tullett RIP   One of the architects of the modern money and FX markets both in London and worldwide, Derek Tullett founder of Tullett and Tokyo passed away on Sunday at the age of 87. A hugely capable broker who was renowned for his machine gun spoken delivery of forward Cable pricing at the […]

Warning or Inevitability?   Yesterday almost every financial news channel out there was covering the Nasdaq Composite stock index. They were sharing headlines that versus its all-time high reached in November, the index had fallen 10%. 10%, but more commonly 20 and 25% after that, are seen as significant retracements in markets that could signal […]

US Markets   While the US unemployment rate falling from 4.3% to 3.9% was a boost, the new jobs figure released on Friday of 199,000 was much less than the 450,000 forecast. Record numbers are quitting their jobs in the USA in a wave dubbed “The Great Resignation” choosing quality of life and WFH. Let’s […]

US Federal Reserve   So it looks now as if the Fed will raise US rates in March-the market has ascribed a 70% probability to them doing that. That sent the 10 Year US Treasury Bond yield to 1.76%-the highest for 2 years. Tight labour markets despite there being 3 million fewer jobs than at […]

USDJPY   The value of the US Dollar rose sharply against the Japanese Yen in 2021. The broad and sustained rally saw the Japanese Yen lose approximately 12% versus the greenback last year. The sell off was significant enough to not only reverse the gains made in 2020, but to push USDJPY to five-year highs. […]

European Markets   European stocks were on song yesterday and enjoyed positive momentum with airline and travel stocks leading the way on hopes of omicron being less damaging than previously expected.   Blackberry   Once the must have style icon for aspiring business and finance workers, the Blackberry has been effectively switched off as of […]

Covid-22   Happy New Year to you all and very best wishes from all at SGM-FX for the year ahead. As liquidity and volume return to the markets following the festive period the true impact of the events and themes presented in the real economy last year should begin to play out. For example, the […]

Markets Round Up   On this the last day of the year, here is a quick look at the key market indicators that are signposting the way into 2022:   10 Year US Treasury yields 1.50% Oil-WTI-$76.02 on hopes that the virus will not hospitalise the numbers feared Gold-$1817 FTSE at 7403-80 points below the […]

Fragility   As the year draws to a close, the anniversary of Biden’s time in office also draws ever closer. Partisan politics will likely define your view on the relative success/failure of this term. In fact, there is significant momentum behind voices against incumbent leaders/parties on both sides of the Atlantic, here in the UK […]