SGM-FX insights

Markets   Those who doubt the precariousness of the situation on the Ukraine border should simply look at the following : US Treasury 10 Year now yielding 1.92% and EUR/USD 1.1320. GBP/EUR 1.2005. It remains to be seen how sanguine global equity markets are in the course of this week.   Porsche, Bentley, Audi, VW […]

Markets   With reports of shelling across or near the Eastern Ukraine border yesterday afternoon unnerved markets with all global equity markets down between 0.5% and 1%; US 10 Year Treasury Bond yield fell back to just below 2%; EUR/USD 1.1370 and GBP/USD 1.3620, GBP/EUR 1.1980.   Further Sanctions on Russia   Those who doubt […]

Stronger ties   Closer to the start of the year, markets had been far more concerned by the adjustment in global monetary policy than national or geo-politics. Rising tensions at Ukrainian borders had therefore taken second place in asset valuations to the words of central bankers. Over the last handful of trading sessions that seems […]

Markets   With news that some Russian forces were being withdrawn from the Ukrainian border, it was enough to send oil 3% lower with WTI down to $93 and 10 Year US Treasury Bond Yields up by 10bps to 2.03%. This was compounded by the US Producer Price Index adding support to the the case […]

Welcome to the Party   As expected, the ECB held rates unchanged at its February policy meeting. The three headline rates maintained by the European Central Bank were unchanged at their release at 12:45 GMT on Thursday. As this was widely priced in, there was little-to-no market reaction around the time of the release with the […]

Ukraine and Global Markets   What if? While no-one apart from possibly President Putin wants to see Russia invade Ukraine, the question is what happens to markets in the event that those Russian tanks and soldiers are ordered to invade. Some of these things have already started happening: Oil will spike sharply higher and will […]

EU Outlook from the European Commission   A cut to already forecasted growth and a sharply raised inflation view from the Commission yesterday due to more covid infections, higher energy prices and disruptions to the supply chain. GDP growth is forecast to be 4% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023 while inflation is now forecast […]

Hawkish Hike   03/02/2022 was a super Thursday that didn’t disappoint. Decisions published only 45 minutes apart from each other from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept traders at their desks in a busy lunchtime. UK money markets had priced in all of a 25-basis point hike from the BoE for […]

Markets   With the US 10 Year at 1.94% and edging ever closer to the key psychological level of 2%, the USD is stronger versus EUR at 1.1410. Christine Lagarde’s comments reflecting the view from the ECB that there is no immediate need for changes to the EU monetary policy is somewhat at odds with […]

Similar metric, different data   As we discussed last week, the non-farm payroll data released on Friday 4th Feb would be of critical importance to the value of the US Dollar. It would be the next major data point on the road ahead of the Federal Reserve Decision next month that will contribute to the Open […]

Markets   As ever at this time of rising prices and unwinding of central bank market stimulus measures, this week’s US inflation figures are going to be watched with close attention. Meanwhile the week kicks off with the 10 Year US Treasury Bond yielding 1.91%, Germany’s at +0.21% and the UK 1.41%. NYMEX WTI oil […]

Markets   Yesterday’s news heavy day has left 10 Year German Government Bond Yields up sharply at +0.14% ,so firmly back in positive yield territory; UK 10 Year Gilts at 1.36% and 10 Year US Treasury Yields at 1.79%. NYMEX oil steady at $87.77 and EUR/USD 1.1450.   USA: The Great Resignation   It is […]