SGM-FX insights

Markets, GBP and Brexit   So much to write about so many different aspects of the political maelstrom in which UK plc is currently being buffeted, but in the end it comes down to just three potential outcomes:  1. NoDeal Exit. 2. Exit with a Deal. 3. No Exit.  Such is the frustration caused by […]

GBP   This week unkind wags have renamed the Great British Pound the Great British Peso in a reference to the gyrations of GBP which are more akin to an emerging market currency than a mainstream one. Those of us with longer memories view the current 1-2 cent moves on the day with less trepidation, […]

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall   Headlines in newspapers and on television screens have been captured by two phenomena in recent weeks. They’ve scrambled to simultaneously grapple with the chaos unfolding within the UK’s exit from the European Union and the protests in Hong Kong. Yesterday, both took a huge leap. The direction of that […]

Seeing the wood from the trees   Outside the European Central Bank in Frankfurt stands an artificial tree named “Gravity and Growth.” The tree stands almost 60 feet tall and is made of brass and granite, all the leaves are in the wrong place and there’s a heavy ball on the top bearing down on […]

Is this a test?   2016; 2017; 2019. These three years have now all seen cable (nickname for currency pair GBPUSD) test its post-referendum low. Building a hyper price-sensitive area around the 1.20 mark, the pair has flirted with this low five times in these three years. This time, the direct risks levied against the […]

Gold Bugs   Just before you conclude that post Brexit, Trumpian civilisation as we know it has had it, and you disappear to a remote cave armed with bottled water, tinned food and a torch, you might want to consider including some gold in your equipment. Much excitement among analysts and gold bugs this week […]

US-China Trade War   This Sunday 1st September sees the first of two rounds of U.S. tariffs of 15% on $300bn of Chinese goods which will hit a range of food such as meat and cheese as well as clocks and musical instruments. This comes on top of the tariffs on $250bn of goods that […]

Overreaction   Yesterday saw the implied probabilities of a no deal exit from the European Union rise within betting and foreign exchange markets. The source of the threat stemmed from Boris’ approved request to Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament. Translation: make lawmakers come back to work later than planned to prevent legislation legally blocking a […]

UK Consumer Spending   Bags of confidence from the UK consumer in July despite what both Westminster and the press are telling us about the UK population being on the edge of despair: 95,000 mortgages approved amounting to £26.1 billion, credit card spending up 8.2% to £12 billion from the same month in 2018-the highest […]

Summer Turkey   An escalation of the trade war in the first half of the fine August Bank holiday weekend gave way to calmer headlines and reprieve at the G-7 in France. Plainer sailing has greeted markets so far this morning with major pairs priced relatively in line with their Friday close. However, there were […]

Squashed Tomatoes   The threat of a US tariff on Mexico’s tomato exports of 17% has been lifted. In the 1980s every US citizen consumed 5.5KG of tomatoes annually; that has now increased to 10KG. So a big deal for US consumers and a very big deal for Mexican tomato growers. Caramba!     Covered […]

Brussels Sprouts Little   Sure, Johnson met Merkel in Berlin yesterday but you try and make a pun suggesting political frustration and Germany’s capital city! Suggestions welcome! Now, in the real world this week, Sterling has been pushed higher (Monday), dragged lower (Tuesday and Wednesday) on whims of reports of progress and then frustration on the […]