SGM-FX insights

Opportunity and Caution   As well-versed readers, you will all be familiar with the status of the US Dollar as a safehaven. The US Dollar’s appreciation during times of global and even domestic US turmoil are familiar themes and contribute to the framework of understanding FX flows and exchange rate movements. However, at the moment, […]

USD/TRL   A combination of the Turkish government announcing measures to channel domestic buyers back into TRL rather than USD, illiquid markets and confirmation that the lower interest rate policy remains intact meant that seatbelts were mandatory for participants in the Turkish Lira market yesterday which saw the USD/TRL rate start the day at 13.50, […]

Confused valuations   I haven’t forgotten about Covid-19, how could I? But it has come in second place with respect to currency valuations in recent weeks. At least ahead of last week’s series of key central bank policy announcements, the key determinant in currency movements was monetary policy. What is surprising in today’s market is […]

Iran   The life of the Iranian drug smuggler can be short, brutish and complicated. Last week off the coast of Dubai when faced with interception by a US patrol boat, 5 Iranians set fire to their stash on board their vessel which unfortunately was a traditional sailing boat made of wood. Things did not […]

Turkey   Another Thursday and another 100 basis point rate cut by the Turkish Central Bank yet again flying in the face of the facts as well as economic rectitude. And the result? a further 5% cut in the value of the Lira. Inflation at 21% and predicted to reach 30% next year which is […]

Thanks, but no thanks!   Moving into last night’s Federal Reserve decision, markets were expecting to see rates unchanged but were closely looking at where the board thought interest rates would be in the year(s) to come. Market expectations had rather neatly convened around 2 whole rate hikes in 2022 with similar expectations for 2023. […]

Emperor’s new clothes   In the Euro area, inflation is running close to 5%. With the spread of Covid and it’s many variants of concern, largely dominated by Omicron at present, visible in close neighbours including the UK and Denmark, the EA is braced for comparable health concerns to hit its borders. The ECB is […]

US Inflation   At 6.8% in the year to November, US inflation is as high as it has ever been for almost 40 years. That should be enough of a warning for the Bank of England as those with longer memories will know that what happens in the USA subsequently reaches the UK. Positively that roll […]

UK   With all eyes on Covid stats, the worst ever outbreak of avian flu in the UK has gone largely unreported. Thousands of farming birds have been culled across the country and an Avian Influenza Prevention Zone was declared on November 3 thereby stretching supplies of turkeys and other Christmas poultry still further. 40 […]

Lord/Jack Frost is back   It seems it’s Christmas time again. Sure, the lights are up and across London, but isn’t the real signal it’s nearly Christmas a resurgence of Brexit risk?! For the last few years, the tensions between the UK and EU seemed to rise into Christmas. The run up to Christmas 2016 […]

Ariel   Or the Atmospheric Remote-Sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey to give it its full name is a truly space age project led scientifically by the UK working with the European Space Agency and built by Airbus which involves launching a telescope in 2029 which will take up position 1.5 million kms from Earth and will […]

What goes down must not come up…   The case for a stronger South African Rand continues to grow in momentum. However, the spot (and indeed forward price) has been reluctant to follow. Why? First let’s make the case for a stronger Rand. Following municipal elections in South Africa, the risk of a major upset […]